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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted a quick turnaround in the current inflation and high oil prices after a brief period of skyrocketing prices.

Bessent, in a discussion with CNBC’s Joe Kernen on Thursday, stated that he is confident these issues will be swiftly resolved once the strait is reopened.

The Treasury Secretary stated that the West Texas crude oil prices, currently exceeding $100 a barrel, are expected to plummet significantly in the upcoming months. He attributed this to the market being well-supplied, with the UAE leaving OPEC and other energy producers increasing their production.

“Nothing is more transient than a supply shock,” he said. Bessent added that despite the Iranian conflict, underlying trends suggest core inflation had been falling before the conflict began and is expected to continue declining.

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Bessent also expressed confidence in the U.S.’s position as an energy superpower, predicting that the country’s record production levels would continue to rise. This, he believes, will lead to a rapid decrease in energy and gasoline prices, subsequently reducing inflation.

“…we may get a series, one or two more hot inflation numbers, but then I think we’re going to see substantial disinflation,” Bessent said.

Commenting on the recent confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Bessent expressed optimism about Warsh’s open-minded approach to the current economic situation and believes that the new Fed Chief is in “a very good position.”

Inflation Outlook Divides Analysts

The prediction of a quick reversal comes in the wake of a significant rise in consumer price inflation, which jumped to 3.8% in April, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, largely due to the energy shock from the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

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The Producer Price Index also saw a significant climb from 4.3% year-over-year in March to 6% in April, adding to the concerns over the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.

However, BlackRock Inc. senior portfolio manager, Jeff Rosenberg, suggested that markets may be looking beyond alarming headline inflation figures as underlying inflation measures appear more stable. Rosenberg said the underlying data was “a little bit better in the details,” noting softer core PCE trends and easing tariff-driven inflation pressures. He added that tariff-related inflation could fade in the coming months, aligning with Fed  President John Williams‘ commentary that pass-through effects may gradually ease even as energy prices stay elevated.

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On the other hand, Ross Gerber, co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki, criticized government policies for fueling inflation and volatility in the U.S. bond market, saying citizens will ultimately “pay the price” for policy decisions ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Image via Shutterstock

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