In its latest oil market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global oil inventories are being depleted at one of the fastest rates in recent years as supply disruptions in the Middle East intensify.
The agency said observed global oil stocks have fallen by a combined 246 million barrels since the start of the conflict, equivalent to nearly a week of global oil consumption.
The drawdown accelerated sharply in April, when inventories fell by 117 million barrels, following a 129 million-barrel decline in March.
According to the IEA, rapidly shrinking oil buffers could trigger further price spikes in the months ahead.
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping corridors, handles a significant share of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
Any disruption in the region immediately reverberates across global fuel markets, raising crude prices, freight costs, and insurance premiums for shipping companies.
For Africa, the consequences could be severe.
Fuel-import dependent economies face renewed inflation pressure
Many African countries rely heavily on imported refined petroleum products, leaving them highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices.
As crude prices rise, governments and consumers across the continent are likely to face higher fuel import bills, increased transport costs, and renewed inflationary pressure.
The IEA noted that Middle Eastern diesel and gasoil exports to international markets have dropped sharply since the conflict began, further exposing Africa’s dependence on imported fuel supplies.
According to the agency, Middle Eastern fuel exports averaged about 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025, with Africa accounting for the largest share of imports at roughly 800,000 barrels per day, compared to 440,000 barrels per day supplied to Europe.
However, exports to international markets fell to just 700,000 barrels per day in April as supply disruptions intensified around the Strait of Hormuz. Fuel exports to Africa alone declined by about 430,000 barrels per day.
While Europe also experienced supply losses, the impact on Africa is expected to be more severe because the continent relies on imports to meet nearly two-thirds of its fuel demand. In contrast, Europe produces close to 80% of its fuel requirements domestically, giving it a stronger buffer against external supply shocks.
The sharp decline in Middle Eastern fuel shipments could therefore place additional strain on African economies already battling inflation, currency weakness, and high transportation costs.
The report, however, highlighted a growing shift within the continent’s energy trade dynamics. West African fuel exports surged to 145,000 barrels per day, more than double the previous three-month average, driven largely by increased output from Dangote Refinery.
The development suggests that regional refining capacity could play a critical role in reducing Africa’s reliance on imported fuel as global supply disruptions persist.