Social Security beneficiaries in Florida may lose about $500 per month in benefits if the program’s trust fund is depleted in less than seven years, as predicted, according to a new analysis.

If this happens, Florida would be one of the hardest hit states. Nearly 20% of the state’s population, or 4,627,797 people, would be affected, according to a Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analysis, resulting in a loss of $26.6 billion in benefits.

For the past 16 years, the cost of Social Security’s retirement program has exceeded the amount it receives from taxes collected from paychecks, forcing it to dip into its trust fund reserves to cover the shortfall. Without any changes, that retirement trust fund will be exhausted in 2032, according to the Social Security Trustees.

At that point, everyone’s benefits could see a 24% decline, the CRFB estimates. Nationally, that equals a $500 average monthly loss, which is more than what the average retired household spends on groceries each month, it said.

Households with a person over 65 spent an average of $5,251 on food at home in 2024, or $438 per month, according to the 2024 Consumer Expenditure Survey. Adjusted for inflation, this figure would equal $461 in 2026, CRFB said.

“No state would be spared from the potentially devastating effects of insolvency,” CRFB warned in its report.

How many people will be affected?

Nearly 70 million Americans, or about 1 in 5 people, receive Social Security benefits. That includes retirees, surviving spouses, and dependents.

The CRFB report said 4,627,797 Floridians would be affected, the second highest of any state after California, based on March 2026 numbers.

That’s 19.% of the state population, one of the highest rates in the country, tied with Michigan and Pennsylvania. The highest percentages of state populations receiving Social Security are:

Which states would see the largest loss?

Beneficiaries in 29 states would see an even deeper reduction than the average $500, CRFB said.

The top 10 losers, it said, are:

How might Florida’s economy be affected?

If Social Security benefits were cut by 24% today, it would amount to $345 billion this year, or 1.1% of gross domestic product, CFRB estimates.

Individual state impacts range from 0.2% to 1.9% of GDP, with cuts exceeding 1% of GDP in 40 states, CFRB said. States that have older populations and lower per-person incomes would be impacted the most, it said.

In Florida, it would mean a total benefit cut of 1.5% or about $26.6 billion of the state’s GDP, the report said.

“With less than seven years until Social Security is projected to be insolvent, policymakers need to enact changes to the program as quickly as possible to protect against these scenarios,” CFRB said.

C. A. Bridges is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida’s service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Social Security insolvency could hit Florida harder than most states