The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has indicated that there is an 80% chance of El Niño conditions developing between June and August this year, which is likely to increase the potential for above-normal global temperatures and extreme weather events, some of which could affect Ireland.

It has prompted a warning from the UN secretary general António Guterres that a severe El Niño could “pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.” 

El Niño is a weather event, where unusually warm ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific disrupt global weather patterns, influencing rainfall, temperature and storms worldwide.

Dr Kieran Hickey, senior lecturer in the department of geography at University College Cork, feels that the global warnings in relation to El Niño should be paid attention to carefully. This includes potentially bringing record high temperatures to Ireland.

Massive global disruption

“If it is extreme enough and long enough, it will cause massive global disruption. In terms of things like food production, in terms of human comfort indexes, all those things it’ll have big impacts on those.

“It will have an impact on Ireland. The potential for an all-time record temperature in Ireland, if we have a strong El Niño, is much, much higher.

“Ireland is quite inured from it and that’s one of the reasons why it’s a harder sell in Ireland.

“We’re not in a country where we have horrific heat waves every summer, or where we have significant water shortages.

“So we’re very lucky. But that doesn’t mean we’re not going to be affected. The effects won’t be catastrophic (in Ireland), but they could be significant.”

With regards to the overall impact a severe El Niño may have on Europe or globally in the mid to longer term, Mr Hickey added: “So for Europe, it is potentially challenging. We have lots of heat waves in Europe anyway, so we don’t need an extra degree too.

“In parts of the world which are already well into the 40s in summertime, or even getting into the 50s, it potentially could rise those temperatures as well.

“That would obviously be disastrous for those people. So, Ireland has always been relatively immune from climate change because we’re a relatively cool, wet country.

“That doesn’t mean that we don’t have weather effects and extreme weather in our own context as well.

“But it all depends on how strong the El Nino is and how long it lasts.”