In today’s TSX Breakouts report, there are 77 stocks on the positive breakouts list (stocks with positive price momentum), and 13 securities are on the negative breakouts list (stocks with negative price momentum).

With the price of gold rallying to record highs, approximately half of the stocks on the positive breakouts list are, once again, gold stocks.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is up 17 per cent in 2025 with 10 of the 11 sectors posting gains. Materials is the top performing sector in the S&P/TSX Composite Index posting a 59 per cent return year-to-date, boosted by the surging price of gold.

The sole sector with a loss this year is health care, which is down nearly 3 per cent. However, there are only three stocks in the health care sector in the TSX index, of which only one company has a negative year-to-date return – Bausch Health Companies Inc. (BHC-T) that is down 13 per cent. The other two members, Chartwell Retirement Residences (CSH-UN-T) and Sienna Senior Living Inc. (SIA-T), are up 29 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively.  

Discussed today is the top performing health care stock that is on the positive breakouts list – Chartwell Retirement Residences. On Monday, its unit price closed at an all-time high on high volume.

On Aug. 7, Chartwell announced an amendment to its shelf prospectus, allowing management to raise money quickly. Given the record high unit price, a financing may be looming.

Management has been active on the acquisition front. On July 21, management announced that it entered into an agreement to purchase six senior residences located in Ontario for $432-million. This deal is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter.

A brief outline on this top performing health care security is provided below that may serve as a springboard for further fundamental research when conducting your own due diligence.

The Trust

Ontario-based Chartwell has a portfolio of 141 senior residences in four provinces as of June 30. By region, adjusted net operating income from Ontario accounts for 47 per cent, Quebec stands at 30 per cent, Alberta is at 12 per cent Alberta and B.C. represents 11 per cent. In the second quarter, same-property occupancy increased to 91.9 per cent, up 4.9 per cent year-over-year. Management believes occupancy will rise to 93.5 per cent by Sept. and 95 per cent by year-end.

On Aug. 7, the company reported its second-quarter financial results. Funds from operations (FFO) per unit came in at 24 cents, two cents ahead of expectations. Same-property adjusted net operating income (NOI) increased 20 per cent year-over-year.

Distribution policy

Chartwell pays its unitholders a monthly distribution of 5.1 cents per unit, or 61.2 cents per unit on a yearly basis. This equates to a current annualized yield of 3.15 per cent.

The monthly distribution has been maintained at this level since early 2020.

Analysts’ recommendations

This mid-cap security with a market capitalization of $5.6-billion is covered by nine analysts and has a unanimous “buy” recommendation.

The firms providing research coverage on Chartwell ar: BMO Capital Markets, Canaccord Genuity, CIBC Capital Markets, Desjardins Securities, National Bank Financial, RBC Capital, Scotiabank, TD and Veritas.

Financial forecasts

The consensus FFO per unit estimate is $0.94 in 2025, rising to $1.08 in 2026.

Valuation

According to Bloomberg, Chartwell is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-FFO multiple of 18.7 times, which is above the five-year historical average multiple of 16 times.

The average one-year target price is $21.61, implying the unit price has 11-per-cent upside potential (a potential total return of 14 per cent if you include the 3 per cent yield) over the next year. Individual target prices are very concentrated and are: three at $21, $21.50 and five at $22.

Chart watch

On Monday, the unit price increased nearly 1 per cent on high volume and closed at a record high. Over 2.3 million units traded, above the three-month historical daily average trading volume of approximately 1.2 million units.

Year-to-date, the unit price is up 29 per cent.

Looking at key technical resistance and support levels, the stock has an initial ceiling of resistance around $20 and initial downside support around $18, near its 50-day moving average at $18.23.

The Breakouts file is a technical analysis screen intended to identify companies that are technically breaking out. In addition, this report highlights a company’s dividend policy, analysts’ recommendations, financial forecasts, and provides a brief technical analysis for a security to provide readers with more information.

If a stock appears on the positive breakouts list, this indicates positive price momentum, and that a company may be worthwhile for investors to look at the fundamentals in order to determine if the recent price strength is warranted and will continue. If a security appears on the negative breakouts list, this indicates negative price momentum, and may be indicative of either deteriorating fundamentals or perhaps indicates a buying opportunity.

Securities screened are from the S&P/TSX composite index, the S&P/TSX Small Cap index, as well as Canadian small cap stocks outside of these indexes that have a minimum market capitalization of $200-million.

A technical analysis screen does not replace fundamental analysis, but can help identify companies worth having a closer look at.

This report should not be considered an investment recommendation for any of the listed securities.