The 20 Oscar contenders and pretenders of 2026 so far

We’ve officially hit 2026’s halfway mark, and while the Oscar race is still a couple months away from heating up, it is starting to seriously simmer. The first six months of the year have seen a slew of releases that are hoping to pleasantly linger in voters’ memories before they can be reintroduced during the fall awards corridor. And those titles run the gamut from out of this world blockbusters to one-location affairs with a smattering of yet-to-be released film festival breakouts in between.

But mixed in with the early Oscar contenders are a batch of pretenders that are going to have a harder hill to climb if they hope to reach the stage at the Dolby Theater next March. Gold Derby looked back at the January through June release calendar and picked the 20 titles from multiplexes, art house and film festivals that fall into either camp. Consider this our Disclosure Day.

• Contender: Obsession

  
  Image Credit: Focus Features

  When the history of 2026 is written, it’ll be remembered as the year where YouTube creators broke through at the box office — and maybe the Oscars. While Markiplier’s Iron Lung, Kane Parsons’s Backrooms, and Gooseworx’s The Amazing Digital Circus are all success stories (and the latter two have very niche awards potential), Curry Barker’s low-budget “Monkey’s Paw” riff emerged as moviegoers’ one true Obsession. Since its mid-May release, the movie has become the kind of seismic phenomenon that makes Hollywood studios, and Academy voters, sit up and take notice. While a Sinners-like run to a Best Picture nomination might be a stretch, a Best Original Screenplay nod for Barker is absolutely in play, and there’s a path for breakout star Inde Navarrette to follow in Mikey Madison’s footsteps to Best Actress recognition. Sure, the message of Obsession is to be careful what you wish for… but in this case, wish away.

• Pretender: Disclosure Day

  
  Image Credit: Universal Pictures

  It’s been a few years — 43 to be precise — since Steven Spielberg has had a close encounter of the Oscar kind for directing an alien-themed blockbuster. And Disclosure Day’s most vocal fans have done their level best to elevate this new movie to the Spielberg pantheon alongside Close Encounters and E.T., which brought him Best Director nominations in 1978 and 1983, respectively. After a solid opening weekend, though, the movie stalled out at the box office and as an awards conversation starter following the mixed response to its tone, narrative structure, and third act among audiences and critics. That dimming enthusiasm has also quieted the Best Actress buzz around Emily Blunt, whose star turn is unlikely to be remembered among the coming onslaught of fall prestige performances from the likes of Sandra Hüller and Julianne Moore. At this point, Disclosure Day is looking less like another Close Encounters and more like another War of the Worlds — a Spielberg alien picture that’s big on spectacle, but small on Oscar recognition.

• Contender: The Invite

  
  Image Credit: A24

  Scooped up out of Sundance by A24, Olivia Wilde’s third film as director is the kind of juicy actors’ showcase that plays equally well in theaters or at home on the Academy screening app, where a sizable chunk of voters will likely see it. But you can also expect the A-list quartet of Wilde, Seth Rogen, Edward Norton, and Penélope Cruz — not to mention the screenwriting duo of Rashida Jones and Will McCormack — to be a major draw once awards season FYC events start up in earnest, and those rooms are where the deciding votes will ultimately be cast. The Invite’s script, adapted from the 2020 Spanish film, Sentimental, has been praised on the festival circuit from Sundance to Nantucket, putting it in a prime position for a Best Adapted Screenplay nod. Meanwhile, Cruz’s sly and soulful performance gives her an early edge in the Best Supporting Actress race, a statuette she previously claimed for Vicky Christina Barcelona. Expect The Invite to receive multiple invitations to Oscar season.

• Pretender: The Drama

  
  Image Credit: A24

  The power of Zendaya compelled younger moviegoers to flock to The Drama when it bowed in early April, driving the $28 million movie to a $130 million global gross and inspiring plenty of social media chatter. But there’s a definite generation gap between those audiences and Academy voters, who are more likely to struggle with the squirm-inducing twists and turns that writer-director Kristoffer Borgli takes in his dark comedy. The Norwegian filmmaker has been in this position before; his 2023 film, Dream Scenario, remains a cult favorite among critics and Nicolas Cage-heads, but it couldn’t break into the Oscar race for Best Actor or Best Original Screenplay. Still, The Drama offers conclusive proof that if you’re still doubting Zendaya’s star power, the joke’s on you.

• Contender: Toy Story 5

  
  Image Credit: Disney/Pixar

  Pixar wasn’t playing around with the fifth installment in its foundational franchise, bringing one of its most celebrated and venerated alums, Andrew Stanton, aboard as director after co-writing the pervious installments. As it so happens, the filmmaker and the Toy Story series have something else in common — they each have a pair Best Animated Feature statuettes. Stanton won that prize for Finding Nemo and Wall-E, while Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4 both have Oscars in their toy chest. (The third film is also one of the few animated features to score a Best Picture nod.) That kind of pedigree made Toy Story 5 this year’s cartoon front-runner before the film even opened, and the film has solidified that status thanks to its critical acclaim and box office dominance. Of course, money alone couldn’t buy Zootopia 2 an Oscar against those KPop Demon Hunters, but the love for Woody and Buzz is very real and very powerful among voters. Barring a major upset, the movie’s Oscar dreams seem golden.    

• Pretender: Minions & Monsters

  
  Image Credit: Illumination/Universal

  Moviegoers like the Minions — they really, really like them. The Academy, on the other hand, is traditionally lukewarm to those banana-chomping mischief-makers; to date, only one entry in the combined Despicable Me/Minions franchise has scored any Oscar recognition — 2013’s Despicable Me 2, which picked up nominations for Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song. That’s why Illumination is pulling out all the stops with the latest installment, Minions & Monsters, trumpeting the new movie as a love letter to old school Hollywood, right down to a George Lucas cameo. The full court press started ahead of the film’s release, with Universal making it the centerpiece of the studio’s CinemaCon presentation in April, and awarding it a prime spot at the prestigious animation-centric Annecy Film Festival. History has certainly shown that Oscar voters are susceptible to movies that celebrate the industry’s storied past — witness the multiple wins and nominations for The Artist, The Aviator, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood to name a few. But history has also shown that the Minions don’t tickle voters’ funny bones… and for now that seems like the piece of history more likely to repeat itself, despite the film’s franchise-best reviews.

• Contender: Michael

  
  Image Credit: Lionsgate

  How do you solve a problem like Michael? On paper, Antoine Fuqua’s Michael Jackson biopic has all the ingredients for a winning Oscar recipe: blockbuster box office, a note-perfect recreation of a legendary entertainer from an unexpected star, and musical sequences that raised the roof in movie theaters across the U.S. Those are the elements that powered movies like Walk the Line, Ray, and Bohemian Rhapsody to multiple nominations in their respective years. But Michael also made the widely criticized — if commercially savvy — choice to moonwalk around the singer’s, shall we say, complicated legacy, and those moves dominated a lot of the pre- and post-release discussion. Still, Bohemian Rhapsody was far from an authentic depiction of Freddie Mercury’s life, and that movie went 4-for-5 at the 2019 Oscars, winning every category it was nominated in except for Best Picture. Michael is simply too big a phenomenon for the Academy to ignore outright, and there are multiple races where the film could break through without making voters feel like they’re endorsing anything that happened outside of the frame. Seeing how the movie navigates awards season will be a real thriller.    

• Pretender: The Devil Wears Prada 2

  
  Image Credit: Macall Polay/20th Century Studios

  Miranda Priestly’s smashingly successful return to the runway proved that early-aughts nostalgia is alive and well among millennial and Gen Z audiences. The 20-years-later follow-up also cleverly won over many critics with its spot-on commentary about the state of modern journalism. Still, Oscar voters have a mixed track record when it comes to the nostalgic lure of legacy sequels to previously nominated hits; for every Top Gun: Maverick and its six nominations, there’s a Creed or Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull that gets one nod or none. In the case of Prada 2, that one potential nomination seems most likely to go to the film’s costume designer, Molly Rogers, as Meryl Streep’s second outing as Miranda is less surprising — and less-devilish — than the previous installment. But we also wouldn’t be surprised if the sequel’s Oscar closet remains bare.  

• Contender: Fjord

  
  Image Credit: Neon

  Another year, another Neon-acquired Palme d’Or champ that’s bound for Best Picture status. The distributor stretched its Cannes winning streak to seven titles with writer-director Cristian Mungiu’s first film outside of his native Romania, and also the first to feature globally recognized stars like previous Oscar nominees Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve. Fjord casts the duo as parents whose approach to childrearing makes them the target of suspicion in their small Norwegian town, exposing the small-mindedness that exists beneath the bucolic scenery.  While the movie still has to run the fall festival gauntlet ahead of its Oct. 9 release, Neon’s 4-for-6 record at guiding past Palme d’Or winners Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora to Best Picture nominations (plus a 2-for-4 record among that quartet) will absolutely provide Fjord with fertile awards season ground.

• Pretender: Paper Tiger

  
  Image Credit: Neon

  We’ve seen this movie before: A James Gray film debuts to standing ovations and passionate reviews out of Cannes only to land with a thud on American shores among general audiences and awards voters. It happened with The Yards, We Own the Night, Two Lovers, The Immigrant, and Armageddon Time, and unless sixth time turns out to be the charm, that could be the destiny for Paper Tiger as well. A late addition to the Cannes lineup, Gray’s new crime drama was one of the most high-profile American movies on the Croisette, bringing stars Adam Driver and Miles Teller (but not Scarlett Johannson) to the red carpet. While the director’s dedicated fans were quick to proclaim the crime drama a triumph, the critical praise was far from unanimous, and Paper Tiger was a non-starter with the Competition jury as well. We’re not ruling out a second wind in Toronto or New York — where Gray is a hometown hero — before it opens on Nov. 13. But at this point, Tiger is heading into awards season seriously declawed.

• Contender: Project Hail Mary

  
  Image Credit: Amazon MGM

  Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s space odyssey amazed, amazed, amazed at the box office, emerging as 2026’s first certified blockbuster. And the bevy of positive reviews and overall good vibes around the movie and leading man Ryan Gosling should buoy its awards hopes, especially in the crafts categories. The big question is just how quickly Amazon MGM will switch over from funding Project Hail Mary’s theatrical campaign to its awards campaign. Warner Bros. bided its time with Sinners last year, allowing Ryan Coogler’s film to bask in its spring commercial success before relaunching it as a prestige awards player in the late summer ahead of the fall deluge — a pivot that ultimately paid off in a historic number of Oscar nods. PHM won’t reach Sinners’s 16-nomination stratosphere, but it likely won’t need a Hail Mary pass to put some nods on the board.

• Pretender: The Bride!

  
  Image Credit: Courtesy Warner Bros.

  If Project Hail Mary is one of the biggest success stories of the first quarter of 2026, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Bride was among that calendar period’s biggest goats — not to be confused with that other GOAT. Boasting a reported $90 million price tag, the movie struggled commercially and critically, although star Jessie Buckley avoided a Norbit situation thanks to Warner Bros. helpfully delaying the release until after the final Oscar voting window, ensuring her Hamnet victory would continue unimpeded. For the record, The Bride! does have its admirers who appreciate the audacity of Gyllenhaal’s ambition in spite of the movie’s mixed execution. But that cult isn’t big enough to get this particular bride down the aisle to an Oscar.

• Contender: Josephine

  
  Image Credit: Courtesy Sundance Institute/Greta Zozula

  In terms of film festival superstars from the first half of 2026, there’s one big name you need to remember: Josephine. Writer-director Beth de Araújo’s sophomore feature hit the Sundance jackpot, picking up both the Grand Jury Prize and the Audience Award in the U.S. Dramatic Competition. It’s first movie to score both those honors since CODA back in 2021… and we all know how that played out. Josephine also posted positive notices at the Berlin Film Festival and was subsequently acquired by newbie distributor Sumerian Pictures. While the film’s difficult subject matter could be a barrier to entry for some audiences, there is a path towards Oscar contention in certain categories, led by a potential first-time Best Supporting Actor nod for Channing Tatum who was overlooked for his Jerry Maguire-esque star turn in last year’s underappreciated Roofman.

• Pretender: Wuthering Heights

  
  Image Credit: Warner Bros.

  Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi got pulses racing on the press tour for Saltburn mastermind Emerald Fennell’s appropriately salty take on the vintage Emily Brontë novel. But after all that build-up, the movie itself didn’t exactly cause critics or audiences to swoon, posting solid, but not exceptional, box-office grosses and Rotten Tomatoes scores. Breaking into the major races was always going to be a stretch, but the mixed reaction to Wuthering Heights suggests that it may not be as competitive in the craft categories as we initially thought, especially with more period pictures on the horizon from The Odyssey to Wicker. Even the Charli xcx songs have struggled to stay top of mind… or top of the charts.

• Contender: The Christophers

  
  Image Credit: Neon

  Ian McKellen may be an acting wizard, but he has yet to grasp that One Statuette to rule them all. The beloved stage and screen veteran is 0-for-2 when it comes to the Oscars, with a lone 1999 Best Actor nomination for Gods and Monsters and a 2002 Best Supporting Actor nod for The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. After a lengthy hiatus from main character parts in major motion pictures, McKellen scores a memorable lion-in-winter star turn as a reclusive artist in The Christophers, which hails from the dynamic duo of director Steven Soderbergh and screenwriter Ed Solomon. It’s a juicy part and the actor makes a meal out of it to the delight of festival audiences from Toronto to Sonoma, where The Christophers just won the Audience Award for Best Film. Leave it to McKellen to paint his masterpiece at 86 years young.

• Pretender: Midwinter Break

  
  Image Credit: Mark de Blok/Focus Features

  Speaking of British acting legends overdue for Academy Award wins, Lesley Manville and Ciarán Hinds — both of whom have one Oscar nod apiece, she for 2017’s Phantom Thread and he for 2021’s Belfast — joined forces for this quiet, restrained marital drama from acclaimed theater director, Polly Findlay. Unfortunately, the movie is just a little too quiet and restrained to make any sort of noise in the awards race, especially with a mid-February berth. At least both actors got to enjoy an extended vacation in Amsterdam, and Manville added a Tony Award to her shelf thanks to her acclaimed performance in the Broadway hit Oedipus.

• Contender: Ha-Chan Shake Your Booty!

  
  Image Credit: Courtesy Sundance Institute

  Sony Pictures Classics has been keeping this particular Sundance acquisition out of the spotlight since Park City, but expect star Rinko Kikuchi’s dance card to fill up once the fall festival season approaches. Previously nominated for Best Supporting Actress for her breakout role in 2006’s Babel, the Japanese actress gets to show off both comedic and dramatic moves in Josef Kubota Wladyka’s well-reviewed feature, playing a widower who develops an unhealthy crush on her ballroom dance instructor. While the film’s protracted runtime occasionally leads it to trip over its own feet, Kikuchi delivers a crowdpleasing performance that may just sweep awards voters off their feet.

• Pretender: Hoppers

  
  Image Credit: Pixar

  Pixar’s mind-swapping romp succeeded at getting families into theaters in the early part of 2026, to the tune of $300 million worldwide. But thanks to the behemoth that is Toy Story 5, Hoppers is destined to left in the company’s toy chest come awards season, especially with a number of other heavyweight animated contenders on the horizon like Laika’s latest stop motion feature Wildwood and Aardman’s eternally popular Shaun the Sheep series.

• Contender: André Is an Idiot

  
  Image Credit: Joint Venture

  Debuting at the 2025 Sundance Film Festival, Tony Benna’s acclaimed documentary finally arrived in theaters earlier this March, which also happens to be National Colorectal Cancer Awareness Month. And that date isn’t at all coincidental given that the film depicts what happened to the titular “idiot,” ad exec André Ricciardi, after he skipped a colorectal screening and was subsequently diagnosed with Stage 4 colon cancer. As the title suggests, the film paints a darkly funny — and deeply emotional — portrait of Ricciardi’s battle with the disease that keeps it advocacy from tipping over into preachiness. Of all the Best Documentary contenders released so far this year, André Is an Idiot boasts the best title and the most memorable ending.

• Pretender: Melania

  
  Image Credit: Amazon MGM Studios

  Project Hail Melania? That appears to be the general tone and tenor of Brett Ratner’s much-pilloried film about Melania Trump’s second time serving as America’s first lady. Given the reception, it’s unclear whether Amazon MGM intends even a cursory FYC campaign for Melania. But at least one awards group already has it on their radar; the Razzies have announced that Ratner’s movie is a “shoo-in” for multiple 2027 dishonors.