Ireland’s future defence and security needs could be best met by next-generation drones and other high-technology equipment rather than investing in fighter jets, tanks and naval ships, a former British security official has said.
Many European states, including the United Kingdom, face huge legacy issues because they have long invested in military equipment now increasingly threatened by cheap, deadly drones, Paddy McGuinness told the west Cork History Festival.
However, Ireland could now benefit from the rapid advances in military technology.
“Late entrants often have an advantage over pioneers. They don’t have to inherit yesterday’s technology and approach,” McGuinness said.
“I wouldn’t go and buy a tank today myself, I don’t think. Or if I did, I’d buy a second-hand one, saying it’s for a short life, and there’s going to be something else autonomous that comes along.”
The debate in Ireland should not overly focus on the sovereignty issues posed by the never-published agreement between Ireland and the UK that ensures that British military jets would provide air cover in Irish skies to meet threats.
“My experience with the British state is that it does what is in its interest,” the former senior official told the audience, “It’s in our interest to have some capability over Irish soil.”
McGuinness said there were some defence issues to take into consideration when designing the capabilities needed to defend sovereignty, resilience, neutrality in Ireland ”from scratch”.
“Would it be frigates, fighter aircraft, heavy armour, or would it be autonomous maritime surveillance, drones, AI-enabled intelligence, fibre capability, subsea infrastructure protection,” he told the festival at Inishbeg, near Baltimore in west Cork.
McGuinness is a former UK deputy national security adviser under David Cameron and Theresa May, with a particular focus on relations with Ireland, who has also served in the UK Foreign Service.
The “geography of security has fundamentally changed” in just a few years, McGuinness said. “The old geography was borders, coastlines, cables potentially, airspace, territorial waters.
“The new geography is cloud infrastructure, data, artificial intelligence, access to space, undersea cabling, energy, critical infrastructure. Because of that, Ireland has become really significant in a way it has not been previously,” he added.
Former British deputy national security adviser Paddy McGuinness speaking at the West Cork History Festival at Inishbeg, near Baltimore in west Cork. Photograph: Colman Stephen
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The nature of warfare has changed, too.
“This isn’t just a Silicon Valley projection. We see it played out in Ukraine, where unmanned systems at sea, directed by technologies that frankly are available in many high streets, can defeat the Russian Black Sea fleet.”
Changing military threats posed by drones and other technologies gives Ireland the opportunity to make some choices “which means you’re not buying legacy systems that immediately slow you down.”
Military forces facing the new threats are often hindered by traditional loyalties where “everyone has a cap badge they’re signallers or they’re tankies, or they are artillery, and they feel incredibly loyal to that.”
States that have long invested in military forces struggle to adapt, said McGuinness, who advised two British prime ministers on intelligence and security issues as the UK’s deputy national security adviser.
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