Much of the impetus for this progress can be attributed to the vision and determination of the Chinese government. China has added 300 GW of new renewable electricity capacity since 2023 as costs have declined. Short construction times and falling costs have spurred the adoption of large-scale and rooftop solar for commercial and residential use alike. Europe and the United States have moved more slowly, but both still look likely to reach their 2030 targets. In Europe, new products such as Ikea’s plug-and-play solar kit, which starts working once users plug it into the wall, could push uptake further.
But cheaper and more efficient energy technologies bring their own problem: a long-standing paradox first recognized by the English economist William Stanley Jevons. As he noted, technological advances in efficiency reduce costs, whether this comes from more efficient coal-fired steam engine or light-emitting diode (LED) lighting. But it can also expand use, increasing total energy consumption despite the improved efficiency. Systematic improvements in the steam engine made all manner of new uses more economical, not least digging out and transporting ever more coal to fuel more steam engines. This is the rebound effect. LED lights may be 80% more efficient than traditional bulbs, but lower costs encourage people to use more of them, increasing the total energy used for light. Renewable electricity may produce a similar effect.