Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen said the unemployment rate reflected more people looking for jobs, rather than people losing jobs.
He said 2200 more people counted as unemployed compared to June 2025, when the unemployment rate was 4.9%
Olsen said this was due to a larger number of people searching for work who were not previously available or actively looking.
He also said the working-age population had increased by 0.8% since June 2025.
“It appears that more people want work, and want more hours, as households grapple with higher fuel costs.”
The average New Zealand household’s cost of living had increased 3.2% in the 12 months to the June 2026 quarter according to Stats NZ – the largest jump in more than four years.
Petrol prices had risen 27.5% in the same period.
Olsen said the Bay of Plenty’s employment rate had risen 2.2% since June 2025, which was 4100 roles.
He said there was a larger sample error for regional unemployment results, making the Bay of Plenty’s 5.8% unemployment rate in the “same ballpark” as the 5.4% unadjusted national unemployment rate.
Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen. Photo / Anna Heath
Hays recruitment agency senior regional director executive Adam Edwards said the unemployment rate dip was “encouraging” but did not signal a full labour market recovery.
“The improvement in the unemployment rate is likely being driven by a combination of factors rather than a significant surge in hiring.”
Edwards said hiring activity had become more “consistent”, but employers were still cautious.
He said job seekers were competing for professional roles.
“Demand remains strongest in sectors facing ongoing skills shortages, particularly healthcare, engineering, skilled trades, manufacturing and other technical professions.”
He said experienced talent was in short supply.
Tauranga Business Chamber chief executive Matt Cowley said the economy had adjusted to the fuel crisis and “positive times” were ahead.
He said business leaders believed the Covid-19 recovery was over – “not because everything is great, but because we’re in a new normal of regular disruption and uncertainty”.
“More opportunities opened up when university students returned to first semester.
“We’ve had steady demand for our free business clinic by people looking to start their own business, suggesting people aren’t waiting for employment; they’re looking to create their own future.”
Tauranga Business Chamber chief executive Matt Cowley. Photo / Mead Norton
He said the Bay of Plenty region included areas with historically high deprivation.
“Plus, the region’s key economic drivers of construction and tourism are, at best, performing patchy.”
Rotorua Business Chamber chief executive Melanie Short said businesses were struggling to find “work-ready staff”.
“I’m watching [the unemployment rate] closely to see if it’s the start of a genuine turnaround.”
Rotorua Business Chamber chief executive Melanie Short. Photo / Aleyna Martinez
Workers First Union is a union representing retail, finance, transport, logistics, manufacturing, and ambulance services.
Tauranga organiser Hayley Derry said the unemployment rate “isn’t matching what we’re seeing on the ground yet”.
She said there was understaffing in retail and supermarkets.
“There are fewer roles opening up when people leave their jobs, fewer casuals cover sick and annual leave, and more pressure on the people who are at work.”
Derry said fewer people were leaving their jobs due to limited alternatives and a high cost of living.
“Years ago, people could leave a job and find another within a week, but not these days.”
Rotorua organiser Phil Graham said the region was “still struggling”.
“We’re not seeing a lot of change in terms of job creation since the start of the year.”
However, he said new jobs were generated at Carter Holt Harvey – a timber producer – in Kawerau following the closure of Nelson Sawmill.
“During pay negotiations, most employers are offering increases less than the CPI [Consumer Price Index] – around 2% or less – which is why being in a union is important, because we are able to push for more.”
Bijou Johnson is a multimedia journalist based in Bay of Plenty. A passionate writer and reader, she grew up in Tauranga and developed a love for journalism while exploring various disciplines at university. She holds a Bachelor of Arts in Classical Studies from Massey University.