Water levels at Horgan’s Quay in Cork city, where several major residential developments are being built, could be a metre higher than current levels by the end of this century, a leading coastal expert at UCC has warned.

“This needs to be accounted for,” Kevin Walsh, geoscientist and researcher at University College Cork, told The Echo.

Mr Walsh is one of the authors of a new study examining impacts on coastal Ireland as climate change intensifies.

Cork has already seen some of Ireland’s highest rates of sea level rise. A recent study led by Patrick McLoughlin at Maynooth University showed that from 1925 to 2024, sea levels around Cork rose about 2.7mm per year. Now UCC researchers say Cork city will face even greater risk in the future as sea levels rise.

The findings from the newly published coastal study also found that, despite Cork’s predominantly lower-exposure coastline, significant areas of very high exposure to climate-related hazards remain, particularly around low-lying settlements including Castletownbere, Cobh, Garryvoe, and Youghal.

Flood risk for Cork city

Mr Walsh also told The Echo that with global mean sea levels projected to increase by up to 1.1m by the year 2100, the flood risk for Cork city is set to worsen.

“The sea levels are going to rise and continue to rise,” he said. “So, if the floods happen more often and if they happen in tandem with a high tide, then we are going to see worse flooding.

“For the city itself, in terms of what is going on down by Horgan’s Quay for example, the high tide and how close it comes to the road and everywhere — just imagine, by the end of the century, the sea levels could be one metre above that. So that needs to be accounted for.”

Horgan’s Quay is earmarked for major redevelopment, which has already begun, including several residential projects.

In relation to long-term building planning and infrastructure developments in Cork City, Mr Walsh added that future developments will have to factor in the potential risks of flooding and feature that into their plans.

“There needs to be awareness of the uncertainty of how much more [the sea] could actually rise when they are planning these things.

“In terms of people’s lifetimes, I think you will see more flooding events because of things like storm surges.

“I’m not sure how impacted Cork can be. But if you combine the high tide with a storm surge and the intense river fluvial flooding, like when the River Lee bursts its banks — if you combine all of that, that could be really catastrophic for Cork city.”

Coastal Exposure Index

UCC has developed Ireland’s first national Coastal Exposure Index https://ucc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/sidebar/index.html?appid=1c2d12ded52c4189931d09be41cb2252, pinpointing where communities, cultural heritage, and other coastal assets face the greatest exposure to climate hazards.

The researchers say this index can help Government, policymakers, local authorities, and coastal communities to identify areas that may require closer assessment and support the prioritisation of adaptation measures and resources.

The research assessed approximately 8,575km of Ireland’s coastline at 250m intervals, bringing together 30 years of wind and wave data, with information on sea-level rise, storm surges, shoreline type, coastal relief, and natural habitats.

Researchers have also launched a new interactive online map that the public can use to explore coastal exposure to climate hazards across Ireland and better understand the risks facing coastal areas.

Targeted regional action

Aaron Lim, a co-author of the study, said: “This research gives Ireland a unique opportunity to be proactive rather than reactive.

“For the first time, we can identify where exposure to coastal climate hazards is greatest and use that evidence to guide national strategy and targeted regional action.”

A spokesperson for Cork City Council said that design proposals for Cork’s entire docklands area aim to contribute to net zero targets for a climate neutral and sustainable economy, saying: “The details of the overall design approach are set out clearly and in detail in the City Development Plan.”

They added that all key public realm projects in the docklands area, including at Horgan’s Quay, will integrate measures to manage flood risk into the overall design to ensure the future population and built form are protected from flood events and sea-level rise.