Given it is arguably the most important issue in the country these days, the point that reports on the housing crisis seem to be published every other day is no surprise. That doesn’t make them any less confusing, though, at least at first glance.
This week the Central Bank of Ireland revised its home completion projections for this year from 40,000 to 39,500 and knocked 1,000 completions off its forecasts for 2027 and 2028. Marginal declines perhaps, but significant when the trend is supposed to be upwards.
“Without further improvements in commencements and building time, current projections may be difficult to meet,” it warned.
To recap, the Coalition set a target on taking office in January 2025 of building 300,000 by the end of 2030.
So far, so depressing.
But what then to make of the Banking and Payments Federation of Ireland (BPFI) report that came out afterwards? That study reckons completions will “exceed 40,000″ for 2026 after what it described as a “strong start to the year”, albeit that pace has since slowed.
The difference between the two reports may be relatively small – what’s a few hundred homes between friends?
But differing projections based off essentially similar data brings home the uncertainty of making forecasts such as these. In a general sense, two high-quality economists can look at the same figures and reach different conclusions. And while the difference may be just a few hundred, that delta really matters.
A report from a credible institution that reduces its housing forecasts for the year can be used by opponents of the Government as a stick to beat James Browne, Micheál Martin and Simon Harris.
The Government, in turn, can use a positive report as an excuse to trumpet its achievements as proof that the housing crisis is being solved.
The two reports, though, are in broad agreement about housing supply into the years ahead. BPFI highlights that commencements for the 12 months to the end of July are well below the previous two years and that planning permissions between January and March are also well down – by as much as a third in Dublin.
The top line of the Central Bank and BPFI reports when it comes to housing may differ, but the message is fundamentally the same: the shortage will not be fixed any time soon.