​​​Bitcoin bounces off last week’s low

Last week Bitcoin swiftly came off its latest $126,219.03 record high and fell by 16% to Friday’s $104,998.25 low amid US President Trump’s 100% tariff threat on China imports.

Since then Bitcoin regained recently lost ground amid calming words from China and the US, taking it so far back towards the $116,000.00 area.

A wave of institutional demand, macro uncertainty, and speculative zeal coalesced to push the price upward.

Last week’s surge to record highs began after US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) pulled in $3.24 billion over the course of the previous week – marking their second-largest weekly inflow ever – and contributing directly to Bitcoin breaking above prior ceilings. 

That institutional momentum has been underpinned by growing conviction among asset allocators that Bitcoin is evolving beyond a niche speculative asset and becoming a meaningful portfolio component in volatile times.

A major driver has been the performance of large ETF products, particularly BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, which led much of last week’s inflows amid growing investor appetite for regulated exposure to BTC.

The broader macro context has also played a role. Economic uncertainty, fiscal stress, and concern about currency devaluation are nudging some capital toward alternative stores of value.

Bitcoin’s rally has found support amid weakening confidence in traditional safe havens and an intensifying narrative that it could serve as a hedge against monetary debasement. 

Last week’s sharp sell-off shows that caution is not yet out of place, though. Profit-taking after sharp gains is always a possibility, and flows into ETFs may fluctuate as sentiment shifts.

If institutional demand softens or macro risks intensify, Bitcoin may drift sideways or see retracements toward key supports.  Maintaining altitude will depend on both conviction and resilience.

Bitcoin bullish scenario:

Bitcoin’s weekend rally puts the mid-September high at $117,971.54 on the cards, a daily chart close above which would probably push the $120,000.00 region back to the fore.

Minor support may be found around the 24 September high at $114,042.32 and the 5 September high at $113,524.03.

Bitcoin bearish scenario:

While no rise above Friday’s $122,587.50 high is seen, the impact of the recent sharp sell-off is likely to linger with a fall through Saturday’s $109,746.24 high probably putting the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $107,003.20, and the early-to-late September lows at $108,709.05-to-$107,286.25 on the map. If fallen through, Friday’s low at $104,998.25 would be back on the cards. 

Bitcoin daily candlestick chart