Fitch Ratings has warned that the asset quality of Thai banks remains “fragile,” projecting a slight rise in non-performing loans (NPLs) this year as the economy continues to struggle. The agency expects the impaired-loan ratio to increase from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025, remaining at that level in 2026.
The ratings firm said the main pressure is concentrated among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), whose impaired-loan ratio stood at 7.9% in the first half of 2025, up from 7.2% at the end of 2024.
Fitch also noted that Thailand’s economic growth remains subdued, forecasting GDP growth of 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, compared with 2.5% in 2024.