Maybe our U.S. neighbours are on to something sending kids back to school in August. My kids are starting to go squirrelly. The eldest spent one morning wrapping her arms and legs in duct tape before camp. This chewed up about 45 minutes in the morning and there was no time for breakfast. I packed it for her to eat in the car, but she refused and wanted to know why the food was so cold. I hope cause and effect are on the curriculum this year.

We may have one more week of summer left, but for Bay Street, school is in session with all the major banks reporting results and Canadian GDP on Friday before the Labour Day weekend.

Here are five things to know this week:

Big banks report: As a group, the Canadian banks are trading at a record high and have outperformed the TSX over the past year. The bar is high as Bank of Montreal BMO-T and Bank of Nova Scotia BNS-T report on Tuesday, Royal Bank of Canada RY-T and National Bank NA-T on Wednesday, and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM-T and Toronto-Dominion Bank TD-T on Thursday. The performance for the group is not bad considering they were supposed to be facing a cliff of mortgage renewals at higher interest rates, while operating in a tepid economic environment. Indeed, top-line growth may be hard to come by this quarter.

However, several factors may help the bottom line. One, there have been seven interest rate cuts from June, 2024, to March, 2025, which should help the bank’s margins. Two, the tariffs and economic situation appears to be stable for now, so there shouldn’t be wild swings in provisions for credit losses. Third, expense control has become the new religion at most banks.

There are nuances with each individual bank, but the big debate on the sector right now is over the pricing of stocks. The group now trades at a 15-per-cent premium to its historical average, wrote National Bank analyst Gabriel Dechaine in a preview note to clients. “In our view, this combination is at odds with what has traditionally been a bad thing for bank stocks: weak domestic GDP growth and rising unemployment.”

Green with Nvidia: The most important company in the world reports results after the bell Wednesday, and investors are pinning their hopes that Nvidia Corp. NVDA-Q can revive the tech sector. While tech stocks bounced last week after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell signalled a willingness to cut interest rates, the sector has underperformed in August. Nvidia will steal focus as it is expected to report a 53-per-cent increase in sales, a 50-per-cent jump in earnings per share and nearly US$24-billion in free cash. No surprise, considering major U.S. tech players are spending US$350-billion on AI this year alone. “We continue to believe from our field checks that demand to supply is 10:1 for Nvidia’s golden chips,” wrote Dan Ives, Wedbush managing director and senior equity research analyst, in a preview note. Analysts have been tripping over themselves to raise price targets for Nvidia ahead of earnings, according to data from Bloomberg.

Striking out: Cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. CRWD-Q will report around the same time as Nvidia but it’s fortunes don’t look as bright. The stock is trading around a three-month low and its top-line growth is expected to be the slowest ever. Evercore equity analyst Peter Levine doesn’t recommend chasing the stock lower. In a note to clients last week, Mr. Levine said the name will underperform partly because his channel checks indicate “subdued” interest. Combined with a premium valuation, Mr. Levine calls the set-up into the quarter “unfavourable.”

Dollar signs: Dollarama Inc. DOL-T reports Wednesday morning and while it may not be the most important stock in the world nor a Magnificent Seven, its performance has been nothing short of extraordinary. The dollar-store operator is up nearly 50 per cent over the past year. To say this is because consumers are looking for trade-down deals while they struggle with inflation would only be half of the story. Dollarama tends to do well in most market conditions. Since going public in 2009, Dollarama has had a positive annual return every single year except once in 2018.

The retailer is expected to report a respectable 4-per-cent increase in same-store sales. However, this is slower than their growth last quarter and may reflect unfavourable weather in May. Some also quibble with the valuation. Scotiabank’s preview note highlights that Dollarama trades at nearly 40-times forward earnings against its 27-times historical average. But analyst John Zamparo still marks it a “buy” and is optimistic that its recent acquisition of an Australian discount store chain will contribute to results.

GDP and me: Friday’s Canadian GDP report for June is expected to show a modest expansion but is unlikely to save the second quarter from a contraction. Economists will be looking for clues in the advance read for July to assess whether we are at risk of a technical recession (two quarters in a row of contraction). Last week’s inflation reading showed significant cooling. That, coupled with a slowing job market, should give the Bank of Canada room to cut rates again. The next meeting isn’t until Sept. 17 but Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem will be speaking next Tuesday, and investors will look for any clues about the path of rates. “While a move in September remains a bit of a long shot — markets peg the odds at about one in three – a move in October is seen as likely, and there could be more to come,” wrote BMO chief economist Doug Porter in a note to clients.

In the Money with Amber Kanwar is Canada’s top investing podcast. Don’t miss the CEO Summer Series featuring in-depth conversations with some of Canada’s top CEOs all month long. New episodes out Tuesday. Subscribe now at www.inthemoneypod.com