Trade wars and economic disputes pose the biggest threat to global stability in 2026, the World Economic Forum (WEF) has warned.
The think tank’s latest Global Risks Report, which draws on the views of 1,300 global risk experts, ranks “geoeconomic confrontation” as the top risk for the year ahead.
This was followed by state-based armed conflict, extreme weather, societal polarisation and tech-driven misinformation and disinformation.
Half of those surveyed said they anticipated “a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years”, up 14 percentage points from last year.
Adverse outcomes of AI (artificial intelligence) was the risk that rose most steeply in the rankings.
The report, which is published each year ahead of the forum’s annual meeting, which takes place in Davos, Switzerland next week, paints a stark picture of a world with escalating geopolitical rivalries and prolonged conflicts threatening “the multilateral system”.
So far in 2026, US president Donald Trump has captured former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro while threatening Greenland’s sovereignty. At the same time political turmoil in Iran, which has reportedly left thousands dead, is threatening another energy shock.
The report also comes on the back of an outcry over reports that X’s AI chatbot Grok is being used to create sexualised images of people, including children, at users’ request.
“A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest,” WEF president and chief executive Børge Brende said. “This shifting landscape, where co-operation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential.
“Our annual meeting in Davos will serve as a vital platform for understanding risks and opportunities and for building the bridges needed to address them,” he said.
A record 400 political leaders, including up to 65 heads of state and government and nearly 850 business leaders are expected to attend this year’s annual Davos gathering. Held under the theme of A Spirit of Dialogue, the 56th annual meeting of the event comes at a time of escalating geopolitical divide and rivalry.
Mr Trump will get top-billing, particularly given his policies are seen as undermining the spirit of global co-operation that the forum champions. He will address the event next Wednesday, accompanied by the biggest US delegation to date.
“We’re pleased to welcome back president Trump to Davos, and he’s bringing the largest US delegation ever,” Mr Brende said.
Prime minister of Canada Mark Carney, German chancellor Friedrich Merz, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and He Lifeng, vice-premier of the People’s Republic of China, are also due to attend.
From an Irish perspective, Taoiseach Micheál Martin; Minister for Public Enterprise Peter Burke; IDA Ireland chief Michael Lohan and European Commissioner Michael McGrath are also scheduled to travel.
The IDA is due to hold its annual Davos dinner on Wednesday with up to 50 top executives expected to attend.