• In the past few days, India proposed 83 new smartphone security rules that could require major manufacturers, including Xiaomi, to submit software updates and potentially share source code with government-approved labs.

  • This push to tighten cybersecurity directly affects Xiaomi’s operations in one of its largest overseas markets, raising questions about costs, data governance, and the complexity of rolling out software globally.

  • We’ll now examine how these proposed Indian security requirements, particularly the potential need to share source code, could reshape Xiaomi’s investment narrative.

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To own Xiaomi, you need to believe its global device and AIoT ecosystem can keep scaling while margins hold up in a mature, price competitive smartphone market. India’s proposed security rules could add compliance costs and operational friction in a key growth market, but at this stage they do not clearly change the main short term catalyst of ecosystem expansion or the overarching risk of margin pressure in lower tier smartphones.

One recent announcement that matters here is Xiaomi’s Sei partnership to pre install a crypto wallet and Web3 discovery app on new phones outside mainland China and the US. This move leans into the same catalyst that many investors focus on, using software and services around its hardware base to deepen engagement and diversify revenue, even as regulatory demands in markets like India inject more complexity into how those services are delivered.

Yet against this growth story, investors should be aware that intensifying regulation in key overseas markets could…

Read the full narrative on Xiaomi (it’s free!)

Xiaomi’s narrative projects CN¥765.2 billion revenue and CN¥69.6 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Xiaomi’s forecasts yield a HK$57.80 fair value, a 53% upside to its current price.

SEHK:1810 1-Year Stock Price Chart SEHK:1810 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Fifteen members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate Xiaomi’s fair value between HK$31.49 and HK$78.87, underscoring very different views on upside. Set these expectations against the risk that tougher regulation in markets like India could weigh on smartphone profitability and, by extension, the broader ecosystem story that many investors are banking on.

Explore 15 other fair value estimates on Xiaomi – why the stock might be worth 17% less than the current price!

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include 1810.HK.

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