“On the whole New Zealand’s housing market is showing tentative signs of improvement, but the same rate of recovery can’t be applied everywhere, it’s quite fragmented,” Goodall said. “Improving confidence is being tempered by affordability constraints, the jobs outlook and cautious lending conditions, particularly in larger urban markets.”
Rates, policy reform shape the 2026 playbook
Interest rate views are central to sentiment. The survey period spanned the Reserve Bank’s late-November OCR cut to 2.25%, and expectations shifted afterwards. Before the decision, 54% of respondents expected at least one rate cut in 2026; after, that fell to 43%, with more now seeing rates on hold.
“The expectation of short-term rate relief has definitely softened following the rate cuts we had in 2025,” Goodall said. “Lower mortgage rates have begun flowing through the market as fixed terms roll off and they’ve also helped to support record levels of first-home buyer activity. We’re also starting to see mortgaged investors gradually re-enter the market too, even as capital growth expectations remain tempered.”
Planning and Resource Management Act reforms add a layer of longer-term optimism, with almost half of respondents expecting regional benefits over the next two to three years. But, as Goodall noted, “the effects are likely to be gradual rather than immediate,” and “in the short term, price outcomes will continue to be driven by sales volumes, listing levels and borrowing capacity.”
The general election later in 2026 will inject additional uncertainty, with borrowers and lenders watching for any policy changes that could affect credit availability or investor appetite.