At my pre-retirement course a decade ago, I was advised that pensioners should not climb ladders. While not fully compliant in the meantime, I have now found that weaker eyesight and clumsy fingers have put me off fixing ceiling lights. I recognise, too, that climbing a ladder for odd jobs round the house may now be risky. However, continuing to work as an economist suffers from no such vertiginous dangers.
It’s difficult for people whose jobs require strength, physical endurance or manual dexterity to work into their 60s. But with widespread white-collar work, it means, for many of us, that working into our 70s is not very different from working in our 50s.
Given the changed profile of jobs, it no longer makes sense to oblige most workers to retire at 65 or even earlier. While some will still opt for the retired lifestyle on a lower income, others would enjoy continuing to work beyond 65, and avoiding the drop in earnings.
Across the EU, there’s a north-south divide on when people retire. In Scandinavia, the Baltics and the Netherlands, three-quarters of the population aged 60-64 are in the labour force, rising to over 80 per cent for graduate workers. At ages 65-69, participation rates drop to a third.
However, in southern Europe, under half those in their early 60s are in the labour force – in France it is just a third.
As the share of older people rises, such low participation rates have helped bring the French public finances to crisis point. But, in the face of strong opposition, successive Macron initiatives to raise the retirement age have met with failure.
Ireland comes midway between northern and southern Europe in old age participation – about 60 per cent of those aged 60-64 are in the labour force. But, if we omit farmers, it’s closer to 56 per cent for other workers. Only 20 per cent of those in their late 60s are at work.
Here in Ireland, we all are thankfully living longer. However, supporting more years of retirement will pose huge financial problems for the State in coming decades, as pointed out in the Department of Finance’s Future Forty report.
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Policies that encourage longer working lives could soften the financial burden of rising old age dependency. If in 10 years’ time, Irish participation rates of people in their 60s rose to current Scandinavian rates, it would have a big impact on the cost of ageing to the exchequer.
It would add nearly 3 per cent to the numbers employed and paying taxes, and could reduce the numbers on the State pension by 5 per cent. Those choosing to work rather than draw a lower pension income would also be better off.
A previous government had proposed gradually raising the State pension age here, but vocal opposition saw this policy abandoned. The French experience shows how difficult it is to raise the State pension age, even when signalled many years in advance. Measures to encourage changes in behaviour may be more achievable, and more politically palatable.
First, mandatory retirement ages should be withdrawn. It also makes sense to reward those who defer retirement with a higher pension when they do quit working.
The rising number of older people brings higher costs in paying for pensions, health services and care, and this is made more difficult still if the numbers of working age are falling.
A recent report from the National Economic and Social Council highlighted the importance of immigration to help rebalance the size of the generations and ensure that enough people are at work to pay the pensions and elder care costs of the future.
Today’s pensioners, who largely own their own homes, manage reasonably well on modest rates of State pension. But the relatively low levels of home ownership among today’s middle-aged population means that pension rates may need to rise sharply in the future to support those who continue to rent in the open market after retirement.
On a more positive note, albeit in the longer term, the growing share of elderly people in our population may help alleviate housing shortages down the line.
Today, twice as many young people enter the housing market each year as exit it at end of life. But as the grey bulge advances, and the growth in young adults moderates, over time the supply of homes vacated on death will more closely align with the level of demand from those setting up home for the first time. With the passing of an enlarged older generation, from the 2050s onwards a lower share of housing demand will need to be met by new builds as more second-hand homes become available for this reason.