Back in August 2024, Ventura Securities set a target price of Rs 1,170 for Paytm when the stock was trading at around Rs 538. That goal has since been reached. In its September 2025 note, Ventura has now lifted its target to Rs 2,074, implying about 84 percent upside from current levels.
The brokerage argues that Paytm remains well placed to benefit from digital payments growth. It points to products such as Paytm Postpaid, AI-driven fraud detection, transaction routing and its merchant network. UPI’s dominance and the spread of Paytm’s Soundbox devices, Ventura says, support its case.
The note also expects revenue growth and margin gains to improve free cash flow and strengthen the company’s balance sheet. It highlights Paytm’s cost cuts, regulatory adjustments and use of AI to improve efficiency.
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Operational data show some gains. Between Q1 FY25 and Q1 FY26, Paytm’s merchant base rose from 40.7 million to 45 million and its devices from 10.9 million to 13 million. Payment GMV increased from Rs 4.21 trillion to Rs 5.34 trillion. UPI market share ticked up from 7 percent to 7.3 percent, and its share of UPI merchant payments from 20.4 percent to 20.9 percent.
Ventura notes that Paytm turned EBITDA-positive (excluding ESOP costs) in Q1 FY26 and projects this to continue. By FY28 it forecasts EBITDA of Rs 2,164 crore at a 15.2 percent margin and net profit of Rs 2,138 crore at a 15.1 percent margin, compared with FY25 losses. It also expects users and device subscriptions to rise sharply, GMV to nearly double and contribution margins to improve.
Whether those forecasts materialise remains to be seen. But from a contrarian call at Rs 538 a year ago, Ventura has doubled down with an even higher target, reflecting its view that Paytm’s growth story is not over yet.