A month into drop-offs and it finally happened, my eldest doesn\u2019t want to be seen with me. Apparently blasting songs from the 1990s and 2000s on the way to school is embarrassing. I thought of bringing up all the times I was cool but instead accepted my fate as a clich\u00e9 parent past her prime. I dutifully dropped her off a block away, put up my windows and turned up the volume. \u201cThey see me rollin\u2019 they hatin\u2019\u2026\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
Here are five things to watch this week: <\/p>\n
Want help? <\/b>U.S. investors may not have jobs data because of the government shutdown, but Canadians will get a snapshot of our labour market with the jobs release on Friday. Economists are expecting the unemployment rate to get worse increasing to 7.2 per cent from 7.1 per cent. <\/p>\n
Economists forecast that just 5,000 jobs were created last month. This would be an improvement from the 65,000 jobs that were lost last month but hardly enough to offset the 100,000 jobs lost over a period of two months. Citi is warning the number could be far worse. \u201cWe continue to expect another 25bp rate cut from the BoC at the end of this month, with a 15k decline in employment next Friday,\u201d wrote Citi\u2019s Veronica Clark. \u201c\u2026 But details of September CPI later this month may actually be more important for determining an October cut.\u201d <\/p>\n
Tariffs are obviously going to colour everything. However, return-to-office policies could also be in play as companies seek to reduce headcount costs, said Michael Cooper, the head of Dream Office, on my podcast back in August. \u201cThat\u2019s why we\u2019re seeing the job losses because now employers are okay to just say, \u2018Don\u2019t come back.\u2019\u201d <\/p>\n
Down to the wire:<\/b> MEG Energy MEG-T<\/a> shareholders will decide the fate of the company voting on the takeover offer by Cenovus Energy CVE-T<\/a>. Shareholders have until Oct. 7 to vote their proxy ahead of the shareholder meeting on Oct. 9. <\/p>\n The friendly, mostly cash offer by Cenovus came after a hostile bid by Strathcona Resources in the spring. After MEG Energy agreed to a takeover by Cenovus at a price that was lower than Strathcona\u2019s offer, Strathcona SCR-T<\/a> increased its bid by 10 per cent but changed the terms to all-stock. Strathcona\u2019s Adam Waterous said on the podcast he was never included in a sales process and hasn\u2019t heard from the company beyond an e-mail to his April 28 offer that said, \u201cNot interested.\u201d <\/p>\n Nevertheless, proxy advisers ISS and Glass Lewis recommended shareholders vote in favour of the Cenovus bid last week. They said Strathcona\u2019s offer carried higher risks compared to the cash certainty offered by Cenovus. <\/p>\n One of MEG\u2019s largest shareholders cashed out ahead of the vote. Eric Nuttall of Ninepoint Partners told me he sold his entire stake. He was the seventh-largest shareholder. \u201cI see significant deal risk in both deals falling apart and as a result there is non-insignificant risk in holding MEG stock today,\u201d Mr. Nuttall said in an e-mail. He says he sold all his shares in the $28\/share range. <\/p>\n It remains unclear who has the votes. While Cenovus previously said this was its final offer, investors will be watching to see if it increases the bid to get the deal across the finish line. \u201cI like neither deal,\u201d Mr. Nuttall says. \u201cBoth undervalue the long-term opportunity in MEG\u2019s asset base and the compounding effect of meaningful share buybacks over time.\u201d <\/p>\n Add to cart: <\/b>Aritzia ATZ-T<\/a> reports second-quarter results Thursday after the bell. Amidst a lot of wreckage in retail, it has been a standout performer. The stock is up 55 per cent so far this year, trading near a record high. Despite the high bar, analysts are confident it can be cleared. <\/p>\n \u201cAritzia has beaten consensus in each of the last eight quarters, and we believe this trend could continue,\u201d wrote Stifel\u2019s Martin Landry in a preview note to clients. \u201cCredit card data suggest strong sales momentum in both Canada and the U.S.\u201d <\/p>\n Analysts are expecting 11-per-cent growth in same-store sales, nothing to shirk at in this environment. However, investors will be keen to see how tariffs could weigh on margins after the U.S. removed the de minimis exemption that allowed companies like Aritzia to avoid duties on goods under $800. <\/p>\n Fizzle:<\/b> In a market with no shortage of fizziness, shares of Pepsi PEP-Q<\/a> have been languishing and underperforming Coke KO-N<\/a>. The stock is up slightly from a three-year low and reports results on Thursday morning. The issues that have hobbled the stock, weak North American sales and lower contribution from international markets, are expected to show up again this quarter. \u201cWe expect a soft quarter for Pepsi in [the third quarter], sequentially decelerating [compared to the second quarter],\u201d wrote Citi\u2019s Filippo Falorni. <\/p>\n