\n In the absence of official data, a constellation of previously reported federal data, private metrics, economists\u2019 analyses, Federal Reserve indicators and job seekers\u2019 lived experiences can help cobble together a rough snapshot of the current US labor market.\n <\/p>\n
\n Here\u2019s a look at what we know \u2014 and what we don\u2019t.\n <\/p>\n
\n Consensus estimates, according to financial data firm FactSet, are that the economy added 50,000 jobs in September, a pickup from August\u2019s preliminary 22,000-job gain<\/a>, and the unemployment rate held pat at 4.3%.\n <\/p>\n \n Baked in to that estimate was an expectation that private-sector firms would add 62,000 jobs while the government (primarily the federal sector) would post a 12,000-job loss.\n <\/p>\n \n Wage growth and the average workweek (a metric watched to gauge whether hours are being cut) were expected to be unchanged from August, when pay gains rose 0.3% monthly and 3.7% annually and the average workweek was 34.2 hours.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cWe\u2019ve seen the story last year, where you had a very weak summer of hiring and then hiring picked up again a bit in September,\u201d Brett Ryan, senior US economist at Deutsche Bank, told CNN this week. \u201cI expect something similar, but not nearly as much of a bounce-back as last year.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n In September 2024, the US added 240,000 jobs \u2014 a robust increase that pretty much matched the entire gains of June, July and August (when job growth averaged 82,000 per month).\n <\/p>\n \n Hiring is considerably weaker this year. During the past three months, job growth has averaged 29,333 jobs per month. The makeup of the US labor force also has changed.\n <\/p>\n \n The US unemployment rate can hold steady even the country adds fewer jobs than last year, economists say<\/a>, noting more <\/strong>people aging out of the workforce, a rise in discouraged job seekers, a reduced flow of immigrants and rising deportations of workers.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cLast year, it probably took about 130,000 (jobs) per month to keep the unemployment rate steady; this year, it\u2019s probably more like 50,000 or below,\u201d Ryan said.\n <\/p>\n \n It\u2019s still not clear how much of the recent labor market slowdown can be attributed to lower immigration, JPMorgan economist Abiel Reinhart wrote earlier this week, noting a sudden loss of such labor could boost openings in affected industries.\n <\/p>\n \n The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report for August, which was released on Tuesday, showed that construction job openings were nearly halved, plunging by 115,000 roles \u2014 the second-largest drop on record<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cThis could also reflect underlying business challenges in that sector,\u201d Reinhart noted.\n <\/p>\n \n Construction, which is closely watched as an indicator of economic activity, has been dogged by a combination of high interest rates, a persistent housing affordability crisis, deportations of workers and tariff-related uncertainty.\n <\/p>\n \n The foreign-born labor force has declined after peaking earlier this year, BLS data shows. However, the drop-off could also be attributed to people refusing to answer surveys or not indicating their nativity status, economists note.\n <\/p>\n![\"Pedestrians](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/gettyimages-2235423793.jpg\")
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