{"id":106755,"date":"2025-10-07T13:11:07","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T13:11:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/106755\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T13:11:07","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T13:11:07","slug":"the-shutdown-meant-no-jobs-report-carlyles-analysis-shows-it-would-have-been-pretty-bad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/106755\/","title":{"rendered":"The shutdown meant no jobs report. Carlyle&#8217;s analysis shows it would have been pretty bad"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Job seekers attend the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on September 25, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida. <\/p>\n<p>Joe Raedle | Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>Employment growth was essentially flat in September, according to data from investment giant Carlyle that seeks to fill in data gaps created by the government shutdown.<\/p>\n<p>The firm said its proprietary data showed job growth of just 17,000 from the month, which would be even less than the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/09\/05\/jobs-report-august-2025.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">22,000 gain in August<\/a> reflected in Bureau of Labor Statistics data.<\/p>\n<p>With the BLS shuttered and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/09\/29\/bls-wont-be-releasing-data-including-fridays-key-jobs-report-in-case-of-a-shutdown.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">data releases suspended<\/a> until the impasse between congressional Republicans and Democrats is resolved, Wall Street firms are rushing to provide alternative measures to paint a picture of where the U.S. economy is heading.<\/p>\n<p>Carlyle&#8217;s data jibes somewhat with other releases showing little hiring growth.<\/p>\n<p>Last week, payrolls processing firm <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/01\/private-payrolls-declined-in-september-by-32000-in-key-adp-report-coming-amid-shutdown-data-blackout.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ADP reported<\/a> that a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, though that included a reduction stemming from adjustments to BLS revisions.<\/p>\n<p>Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas also reported last week that while layoffs declined in September, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/10\/02\/report-shows-hiring-at-lowest-since-2009-as-economists-turn-to-alternative-data-during-shutdown-blackout.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">level of planned hiring<\/a> for firms hit its lowest since 2009, when the economy was still feeling the impact from the global financial crisis.<\/p>\n<p>To be sure, while Carlyle&#8217;s data showed anemic payroll gains, other economic indicators painted a brighter picture.<\/p>\n<p>The firm said underlying gross domestic product growth was running at 2.7% annualized pace in September while business investment accelerated 4.8% on a three-month average annual rate. Carlyle also reported that consumer prices for energy declined 3.8% while services excluding shelter, a key Federal Reserve data point, rose 3.3%.<\/p>\n<p>Carlyle said it derived its data from its &#8220;expansive global portfolio&#8221; that includes 277 companies, 694 real estate investments and 730,000 employees.<\/p>\n<p>Though the firm saw weaker employment data, Goldman Sachs recently said its &#8220;underlying job growth&#8221; tracker indicated a gain of 80,000 positions in September. Goldman also reported that the labor market is loosening, meaning there are more workers than jobs, to levels not seen in 10 years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Job seekers attend the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on September&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106756,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[176],"tags":[9,7033,79,207,49675,4056,179,18,61517,19,17,227,7810],"class_list":{"0":"post-106755","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-jobs","8":"tag-breaking-news","9":"tag-breaking-news-economy","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-business-news","12":"tag-carlyle-group-inc","13":"tag-economic-events","14":"tag-economy","15":"tag-eire","16":"tag-employment-figures","17":"tag-ie","18":"tag-ireland","19":"tag-jobs","20":"tag-personnel"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106755"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106755\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106756"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}