{"id":120621,"date":"2025-10-14T03:44:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-14T03:44:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/120621\/"},"modified":"2025-10-14T03:44:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T03:44:08","slug":"singapore-warns-of-slower-2026-growth-after-third-quarter-gdp-beats-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/120621\/","title":{"rendered":"Singapore warns of slower 2026 growth after third-quarter GDP beats expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This aerial view taken from a commercial flight shows cargo ships docked along the strait in Singapore on April 7, 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Mohd Rasfan | Afp | Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>Singapore&#8217;s economy expanded faster than expected in the third quarter, even as the country&#8217;s central bank warned that growth is likely to slow in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Gross domestic product rose 2.9% year on year in the three months through September, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>That beat economists&#8217; forecasts for a 1.9% increase, though it marked a slowdown from a revised 4.5% expansion in the second quarter.<\/p>\n<p>On a seasonally adjusted, quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy expanded by 1.3%, easing slightly from 1.5% in the previous quarter.<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing was the main drag on growth, flattening after a 5% expansion in the second quarter. The construction sector also softened, rising 3.1% year on year compared with 6.2% in the prior quarter.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Growth was weighed down by output declines in the biomedical manufacturing and general manufacturing clusters, even as output in the other manufacturing clusters expanded,&#8221; MTI said in<a href=\"https:\/\/www.singstat.gov.sg\/-\/media\/files\/news\/advgdp3q2025.ashx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"> a statement.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Growth in the services sector slowed to 0.2% from 1.7%, dragged down by contractions in wholesale and retail trade, as well as transportation and storage.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;While this marks a slowdown from 4.5% y-o-y in Q2, partly due to high base effects from a year ago, it nonetheless reflects a resilient pace of growth amid global trade headwinds,&#8221; Lloyd Chan, senior currency analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, wrote in a note after the data release.<\/p>\n<p><a id=\"headline0\"\/>MAS decision<\/p>\n<p>The economic slowdown comes as Singapore&#8217;s central bank left its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mas.gov.sg\/news\/monetary-policy-statements\/2025\/mas-monetary-policy-statement-14oct25\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">policy settings unchanged<\/a>, maintaining its stance <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/07\/30\/singapore-holds-monetary-policy-flags-slowdown-in-second-half-of-the-year.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">from July<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Monetary Authority of Singapore said that GDP growth is expected to moderate as activity &#8220;normalises&#8221; in trade-related sectors.<\/p>\n<p>Global investment in artificial intelligence is expected to support Singapore&#8217;s manufacturing sector, the central bank said, while construction and financial services should benefit from infrastructure spending and accommodative financial conditions.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In 2026, GDP growth is projected to slow in line with external developments to a near-trend pace, such that the output gap narrows to around 0%,&#8221; MAS said in a statement.<\/p>\n<p>Vishnu Varathan, managing director at Mizuho Securities, said that there were &#8220;no surprises&#8221; in the MAS&#8217; decision, despite significant declines in headline and core inflation in the run-up to this decision.<\/p>\n<p>Core inflation <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/09\/23\/singapore-core-inflation-rate-august-mti-mas.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">rose 0.3%<\/a> in August, the slowest pace since February 2021, as services costs eased.<\/p>\n<p>Separately, the MAS said core inflation \u2014 which strips out prices of private transport and accommodation \u2014 is expected to ease in the near term, before rising gradually afterward.<\/p>\n<p>The central bank said that core inflation should average around 0.5% for 2025 and come in at between 0.5% and 1.5% in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Varathan described the MAS decision as &#8220;not a dovish pause,&#8221; but a &#8220;comfortable hold,&#8221; adding that the bar for further easing remains much higher than simply disinflation risks.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;[Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate] slope flattening &#8230; would require an adverse demand shock,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/09\/17\/singapores-exports-plunge-11point3percent-in-august-much-weaker-than-forecast.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Exports from Singapore<\/a> recorded an 11.3% decline in non-oil domestic exports in August, the sharpest drop since March 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Non-oil\u00a0exports\u00a0to\u00a0Indonesia, the U.S. and China\u00a0fell in\u00a0August, but rose to the European Union, Taiwan and South Korea, government data showed.<\/p>\n<p>Singapore&#8217;s\u00a0exports\u00a0to the United States dropped by 28.8% year on year in\u00a0August, following a 42.8%\u00a0fall\u00a0in July.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This aerial view taken from a commercial flight shows cargo ships docked along the strait in Singapore on&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":120622,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[4055,4053,79,207,12388,179,18,19,17,1999],"class_list":{"0":"post-120621","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-asia-economy","9":"tag-breaking-news-asia","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-business-news","12":"tag-central-banking","13":"tag-economy","14":"tag-eire","15":"tag-ie","16":"tag-ireland","17":"tag-singapore"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120621","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120621"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120621\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/120622"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120621"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120621"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120621"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}