{"id":126684,"date":"2025-10-16T21:37:13","date_gmt":"2025-10-16T21:37:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/126684\/"},"modified":"2025-10-16T21:37:13","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T21:37:13","slug":"ecb-done-with-rate-cuts-as-next-move-may-be-a-rise-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/126684\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB \u2018done with rate cuts\u2019 as next move may be a rise \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

The European Central Bank<\/a> (ECB) is \u201cdone with rate cuts\u201d and its next move could be a rate increase, London-based lender HSBC<\/a> has warned.<\/p>\n

The bank said it expected euro zone inflation to slip below the ECB\u2019s 2 per cent target for most of next year as the pass-through from a stronger euro and US tariffs add to disinflationary pressures.<\/p>\n

\u201cDespite sub-target inflation next year, our central case is that the ECB is done with rate cuts,\u201d it said in a report on Europe\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n

However, it warned that rising wage costs fuelled by still strong (if cooling) labour markets; the prospect that tariffs may reconfigure supply chains and looser fiscal policy on the part of governments may result in a build-up of inflationary pressures<\/a> in the medium term.<\/p>\n

\u201cBuilding inflation pressures in 2027 could mean the next ECB move is up,\u201d it said, forecasting euro zone inflation could climb above target by the end of 2027.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn turn, we see the ECB raising rates in H2 2027, with 25bp (basis points) hikes in September and December,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0ECB will not commit to a pre-determined path on rates, says MakhloufOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

Frankfurt policymakers left euro zone interest rates on hold for a second straight month in September as it weighed the outlook for inflation amid a slowdown in trade and ongoing political turmoil in France.<\/p>\n

HSBC noted that the ECB had managed to bring down inflation from a peak of 10.6 per cent \u201cwith a minimum amount of economic pain \u2013 ie little rise in unemployment and no fall in output.” <\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a far cry from previous inflationary episodes, where recession and painful job losses were needed to restore price stability,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n

\"\"Dublin Bus CEO on recruitment challenges, going electric, and stamping out anti-social behaviour <\/p>\n

\u201cThat makes recent attacks on independent central banks all the more alarming,\u201d the bank said.<\/p>\n

US president Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell for not reducing US interest rates fast enough and has threatened to have him fired.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the ECB\u2019s strict inflation mandate is set in an EU treaty, which should make it well protected relative to the US Fed, it could still face political pressures given fiscal challenges,\u201d HSBC said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The European Central Bank (ECB) is \u201cdone with rate cuts\u201d and its next move could be a rate…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":126685,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[79,2190,18,9652,20288,19,17],"class_list":{"0":"post-126684","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-cost-of-living","10":"tag-eire","11":"tag-european-central-bank-ecb","12":"tag-hsbc","13":"tag-ie","14":"tag-ireland"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126684","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=126684"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126684\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/126685"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=126684"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=126684"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=126684"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}