Porto Asset\u2019s fixed income manager, Gustavo Okuyama,<\/strong> believes that the current situation does not seem ideal for new issuances, given the reduced risk appetite in the local market and the reduced participation of foreign investors. Still, he considers the move positive. \u201cIt\u2019s always interesting for the Treasury to expand the range of benchmarks available to the market. This, in general, is well received. The only counterpoint would be, given the current scenario, whether the Treasury might find demand a little thinner than usual,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n According to Mr. Okuyama, the share of non-residents holding public debt remains below the level at the beginning of the year, indicating that there has been no proportional increase in external demand for the issued bonds. In the domestic market, he sees signs of fatigue in risk absorption, following a series of large issuances. \u201cI think this is very noticeable, especially with NTN-Bs [inflation-linked bonds].\u201d <\/p>\n
On the other hand, a market source, speaking on condition of anonymity, believes that the external and domestic markets do not necessarily connect. \u201cFor example, the local market may be weak while the external market may be performing well. What determines this is the appetite for the issuance in the external market itself,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
The recent market trend is illustrated by the behavior of the ten-year Brazilian sovereign bond, whose annual yield peaked at 6.99% in April, rose again at times over the year, including in October, and fell back to 5.98% yesterday. <\/p>\n
Part of this volatility reflects movements originating in the corporate market, according to another market source interviewed by Valor. Three Brazilian companies have recently faced episodes of stress in their bonds issued outside the country, either due to worsening risk perception or specific credit events. \u201cThese movements end up contaminating the sovereign bond, which is why we saw fluctuations at the beginning of the month,\u201d the source said. <\/p>\n
For Lu\u00eds Felipe Vital, chief macro and public debt strategist at Warren Investimentos<\/strong>, the opening of a window of opportunity is linked to the market\u2019s perception of the capacity to efficiently absorb the bonds. According to him, this window essentially depends on timing, which involves gauging investors\u2019 appetite to purchase new securities under the desired conditions. <\/p>\n \u201cIn general, market participants understand that the Treasury seeks periods of greater demand for bonds, more favorable costs, lower volatility, and the absence of events or disclosures that could alter market sentiment throughout the issuance process,\u201d Mr. Vital says. <\/p>\n
This year, sustainable issuance gained special importance due to its integration into the context of the 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), which will be held in Bel\u00e9m, Par\u00e1 State, in November. <\/p>\n
The Treasury bond issuance may be one of the last by a Brazilian institution in 2025, a year in which fundraising volumes returned to the $30 billion level. At the end of November, after the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, a new funding window is expected. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ll still have a window, but it [will be] calmer. Brazilian companies may issue, but I wouldn\u2019t expect many transactions or significant volume,\u201d said a banker who asked not to be identified. <\/p>\n
The current window, which began in September, has been quite active, with fundraising from Petrobras, Suzano, Rede D\u2019Or, Aegea, and Vamos<\/strong>. The Treasury itself raised approximately R$3.2 billion last month, with a new 30-year bond and the reopening of a five-year bond. <\/p>\n In recent weeks, investors in dollar-denominated debt have expressed concern about Ambipar\u2019s corporate crisis<\/a> and doubts surrounding the financial health of Braskem and Ra\u00edzen, both frequent issuers. <\/p>\n According to bankers interviewed by Valor, foreigners\u2019 appetite for Brazilian bonds remains strong<\/strong>, driven by the U.S. interest rate cut and the search for more profitable assets. Considering recent events, this appetite may be limited to higher-quality assets. In this context, a Treasury offering is unlikely to encounter resistance. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Brazil\u2019s National Treasury estimates that a new issuance of sustainable bonds on the international market must take place…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":136225,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[175],"tags":[79,18,19,17,188],"class_list":{"0":"post-136224","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-eire","10":"tag-ie","11":"tag-ireland","12":"tag-markets"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=136224"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136224\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/136225"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=136224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=136224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=136224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}