{"id":139606,"date":"2025-10-23T03:07:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T03:07:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/139606\/"},"modified":"2025-10-23T03:07:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T03:07:08","slug":"china-car-sales-to-slump-in-2026-if-beijing-scraps-subsidies-jpmorgan-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/139606\/","title":{"rendered":"China car sales to slump in 2026 if Beijing scraps subsidies, JPMorgan says"},"content":{"rendered":"<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">Car sales in mainland China are likely to slide in 2026, breaking a six-year streak, if Beijing stops granting cash subsidies and tax incentives to buyers, according to a JPMorgan forecast that looms over the earnings outlook for the country\u2019s 100-odd vehicle assemblers.<\/p>\n<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">\u201cWe expect retail [car] sales to see flat growth next year in a bullish scenario,\u201d Nick Lai, head of auto research in Asia-Pacific at JPMorgan, said in an interview. \u201cThe market has more than a 50 per cent chance of seeing year-on-year slippage as meaningful demand may have been brought forward.\u201d<\/p>\n<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">Mainland car sales could slump by 3 to 5 per cent next year in a more cautious scenario, he added.<\/p>\n<p>The forecast encompasses both <a target=\"_self\" class=\"e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb ecgc78b0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/topics\/electric-cars?module=inline&amp;pgtype=article\" title=\"\" data-qa=\"BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">electric vehicles (EVs)<\/a> and petrol cars. The EV segment \u2013 a bright spot in China\u2019s economy amid surging adoption by local motorists \u2013 was expected to grow 15 per cent next year, down from a projected 27 per cent this year, Lai said.<\/p>\n<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">China\u2019s automotive sector last contracted in 2020, when carmakers handed a total of 19.5 million units to customers, down 6.2 per cent from 2019, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed.<\/p>\n<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">Expiring subsidies and tax incentives are to blame for the pessimistic outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Car sales in mainland China are likely to slide in 2026, breaking a six-year streak, if Beijing stops&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":139607,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[1793,79,26607,42768,82662,82659,381,72090,82664,179,18,8888,82665,19,17,15431,82666,50144,82661,82660,4434,82663],"class_list":{"0":"post-139606","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-beijing","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-byd","11":"tag-car-sales","12":"tag-cash-subsidies","13":"tag-cash-subsidy","14":"tag-china","15":"tag-china-passenger-car-association","16":"tag-chinese-carmakers","17":"tag-economy","18":"tag-eire","19":"tag-electric-vehicles","20":"tag-ev-buyers","21":"tag-ie","22":"tag-ireland","23":"tag-jpmorgan","24":"tag-nick-lai","25":"tag-overcapacity","26":"tag-price-competition","27":"tag-purchase-tax","28":"tag-southeast-asia","29":"tag-trade-in-subsidy"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/115421278645906345","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=139606"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139606\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/139607"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=139606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=139606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=139606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}