{"id":140423,"date":"2025-10-23T11:35:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T11:35:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/140423\/"},"modified":"2025-10-23T11:35:11","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T11:35:11","slug":"the-tiny-light-in-a-data-blackout-cpi-inflation-data-will-land-friday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/140423\/","title":{"rendered":"The tiny light in a data blackout: CPI inflation data will land Friday"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n Nearly two dozen days have passed since a federal agency has published an economic report<\/a>. The US government\u2019s shutdown has resulted in a blackout of critical data, further clouding<\/a> an already opaque economic outlook.\n <\/p>\n

\n That will change \u2013 albeit briefly \u2013 Friday morning, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release the Consumer Price Index report for September.\n <\/p>\n

\n The September CPI will allow the data-hungry to get a little fix, providing a snapshot of how prices are trending for Americans.\n <\/p>\n

\n The report is a one-off of sorts: BLS staff were called back into the office<\/a> this month <\/strong>to allow the government to meet statutory requirements in adjusting Social Security payments for next year. The September CPI is the final piece of data needed for the 2026 cost of living adjustment.\n <\/p>\n

\n So, after the CPI is released, darkness once again will envelop federal economic data until the government reopens.\n <\/p>\n

\n (And as for the report itself, economists tell CNN that despite the circumstances behind the delayed release, they\u2019re not concerned about the integrity of the underlying data.)\n <\/p>\n

\n Economists expect the latest data to show <\/strong>that prices for a slew of commonly purchased goods and services rose at a faster-than-typical clip (0.4%) last month. This would lift the annual rate of inflation from 2.9% to 3.1% \u2013 the fastest pace in more than a year.\n <\/p>\n

\n There are many factors behind the upswing, including: pricier gas, food and tariff-impacted goods as well as slower-than-anticipated reduction in inflation on the services side \u2013 notably housing.\n <\/p>\n

\n It\u2019s helpful to remember that the last time inflation was below 2% was in February 2021, Michael Pugliese, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told CNN in an interview.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cAt the macro level, it\u2019s a reminder of how sticky inflation can be when it gets out of the tube and how hard it is to get to back to that 2% once it\u2019s been above target for a while,\u201d he said.\n <\/p>\n

\n American consumers have weathered nearly five years of prices rising faster than they typically should (and prices rose far, far faster than usual for two of those years). However, years of high inflation have taken their toll.\n <\/p>\n

\n Food prices, for example, have risen 24% between 2020 and 2024, noted Billy Roberts, senior analyst for food and beverage at CoBank, which provides financial services to agribusinesses and rural firms.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cWe\u2019ve seen smaller degrees of inflation, even over the course of this year, but it\u2019s really that cumulative effect,\u201d he said.\n <\/p>\n

\n In August, grocery prices jumped 0.6%<\/a>, the highest monthly increase in nearly three years, according to BLS data. Economists expect the September gain to be more mellow; however, certain categories likely will highlight pain points.\n <\/p>\n

\n Beef prices, for example, have risen dramatically<\/a> in recent years as herds have shrunk amid prolonged drought<\/a>. Cocoa<\/a> and coffee prices<\/a>, which have been pushed higher by climate change<\/a> stifling supply, now face further pressures from tariffs<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n

\n Consumers stocking up for trick-or-treaters are now seeing the effects, Roberts said, noting cocoa prices are \u201cstill about double, if not triple, what they were in 2022-\u201923.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThose aren\u2019t items that consumers necessarily buy week in and week out,\u201d but they\u2019re buying in bulk now for Halloween, he said. \u201cThose prices are going to provide a lot of sticker shock for consumers.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Food prices remain a sore spot for many Americans as do electricity prices<\/a>, which also have been on the rise, Joe Brusuelas, RSM chief economist, told CNN.\n <\/p>\n

\n In addition to those categories, Brusuelas noted he\u2019ll be monitoring services-related inflation \u2014 such as airfare and other discretionary areas \u2014 and whether it\u2019s remaining stubbornly high.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cWhat I am concerned about is the sticky and stubborn service sector costs along with rising food and utility prices, which are really placing stress on middle-class and down-market households,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd this is a function of that greater discussion around the K-shaped economy, where 40% of this country is thriving.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n A recent analysis by Moody\u2019s Analytics found that the country\u2019s top-earners (who have benefited from a surging stock market, rising wages and increased housing wealth) are accounting for an even greater share of overall spending<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cDown market,\u201d Brusuelas added, \u201cit\u2019s a very different reality.\u201d\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nearly two dozen days have passed since a federal agency has published an economic report. The US government\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":140424,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[79,179,18,19,17],"class_list":{"0":"post-140423","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-eire","11":"tag-ie","12":"tag-ireland"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/115423276333989478","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140423","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=140423"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140423\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/140424"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=140423"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=140423"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=140423"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}