Mount Etna is one of the world\u2019s most active volcanoes. Located on the east coast of Sicily, it erupts multiple times per year – most recently in June this year.<\/p>\n
While it is somewhat possible to predict eruptions, a new study published<\/strong><\/a>in Science Advances proposes a new prediction method that analyses earthquake patterns. It could allow for earlier and better preparedness.<\/p>\n How to predict volcanoes<\/strong><\/p>\n Scientists currently monitor Mount Etna by looking at seismic, geological, geophysical, and geochemical data, especially how magma moves in the upper crust. From this, they are able to get a sense of whether the volcano will erupt shortly, as when magma erupts on the surface, it becomes lava<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong> But oftentimes, there\u2019s not a lot of time between an alert and aneruption<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n This new study offers a different paradigm: looking at earthquake<\/strong><\/a>patterns and magma movements on a deeper level.<\/p>\n Earthquakes and volcanoes are often interconnected. Earthquakes occur along tectonic plate boundaries, and Mt. Etna is situated right at the meeting point of the African and European tectonic plates. Small and big earthquakes affect the volcano\u2019s magma movement, potentially influencing the eruption.<\/p>\n A new method<\/strong><\/p>\n The study, conducted by researchers National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, analysed two decades’ worth of earthquake data from Mount Etna.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Researchers honed in on the \u201cb value,\u201d which basically assesses the proportion of small to large earthquakes. They found a correlation between volcanic activity and b value: the ratio changed as the magma rose through the crust. By plotting the \u201cb value\u201d over time, they could identify some early signs of volcanic eruption.<\/p>\n \u201cOur results show that monitoring the b value over time offers a valuable opportunity to track magma movements from deep to shallow portions of the plumbing system and could be integrated into Etna\u2019s multiparametric surveillance system to improve the assessment of impending eruptions,\u201d the authors write.<\/p>\n Avoiding catastrophe<\/strong><\/p>\n Earlier and more accurate prediction is crucial for the communities surrounding Etna. According toNASA<\/strong><\/a>, nearly one-third of Sicily\u2019s<\/strong><\/a>population lives along the slopes of the volcano. June\u2019s eruption<\/strong><\/a> saw ash plumes of 6.5 kilometres.<\/p>\n Related<\/b><\/p>\n