{"id":160743,"date":"2025-11-03T16:48:09","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T16:48:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/160743\/"},"modified":"2025-11-03T16:48:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T16:48:09","slug":"shutdown-nears-its-end-but-economic-damage-is","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/160743\/","title":{"rendered":"Shutdown Nears Its End \u2014 But Economic Damage Is\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

The U.S. government shutdown has dragged into its 33rd day, and while a resolution may soon be approaching, economists warn the economic fallout is already underway. <\/a><\/p>\n

In a note to clients on Monday, Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips<\/strong> said the standoff in Washington is likely to cost the U.S. economy more than a full percentage point of growth in the final quarter of 2025, shaving GDP growth to just 1.0%.<\/p>\n

That’s a significant downgrade. Goldman had previously expected a stronger finish to the year, but now believes the shutdown will result in postponed federal spending, delayed hiring, and reduced investment.<\/p>\n

How Long Could The Shutdown Last?<\/p>\n

If current odds are any guide, the shutdown could stretch further still. <\/p>\n

Prediction markets tracked by CFTC-regulated betting platform Kalshi peg the median expected duration at 45.9 days, or until Nov. 15. <\/p>\n

As of now, there\u2019s an implied 75% chance it lasts over 40 days, and a 35% chance it extends beyond 50.<\/p>\n

The standoff is shaping up to become the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, surpassing the 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019.<\/p>\n

Yet pressure is mounting. Missed pay for air traffic controllers and TSA screeners on Oct. 28, with another due Nov. 10, threatens a replay of the 2019 shutdown, when airport delays forced a last-minute compromise. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, SNAP food benefits, normally issued the first week of each month, are at risk\u2014though a recent court ruling may allow for partial disbursement using contingency funds.<\/p>\n

Why This Shutdown Hurts More Than Past Ones<\/p>\n

Unlike previous shutdowns that targeted specific agencies, this one involves a full lapse in congressional appropriations, making it broader in scope and impact.<\/p>\n

“This shutdown will have the greatest economic effect on record,” Goldman said in the note. “A longer duration could spill over into private-sector activity, delaying investments and stalling consumption.”<\/p>\n

The immediate damage is expected to come from federal employee furloughs and delayed government purchases. <\/p>\n

If the shutdown runs six weeks, federal spending pushed into first-quarter 2026 could slightly boost growth by 1.3 percentage points in that quarter, according to Goldman’s models.<\/p>\n

Political Stalemate Or Imminent Breakthrough?<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs sees growing signs the shutdown may soon end. The start of ACA enrollment on November 1 has intensified focus on health care subsidies, while the November 4 elections and the upcoming congressional recess could shift political incentives. Public-sector unions, including the AFGE, are now calling for a resolution, adding pressure on Democrats and Republicans to reach a deal.<\/p>\n

So far, Democrats have resisted a clean funding bill, but polls show voters largely blame Republicans and President Trump. A possible compromise could involve reopening the government now, with a promised vote on health subsidies before the November 21 deadline.<\/p>\n

Goldman views more drastic moves, like scrapping the Senate filibuster, as unlikely. Still, with prediction markets pointing to a mid-November resolution, momentum toward a deal appears to be building.<\/p>\n

“We underestimated how long this shutdown would last,” said Alec Phillips. “But the political and financial pressure is building, and the window for compromise is finally opening.”<\/p>\n

Read now:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Image: Shutterstock<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The U.S. government shutdown has dragged into its 33rd day, and while a resolution may soon be approaching,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":160744,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[9,79,1063,179,18,1831,19,1826,17,5,1828,1827,1829,1830,66],"class_list":{"0":"post-160743","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-breaking-news","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-daily-news","11":"tag-economy","12":"tag-eire","13":"tag-global-news","14":"tag-ie","15":"tag-inkl","16":"tag-ireland","17":"tag-news","18":"tag-news-app","19":"tag-news-headlines","20":"tag-news-today","21":"tag-today-news","22":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/115486793370938725","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160743","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=160743"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160743\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/160744"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=160743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=160743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=160743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}