{"id":162989,"date":"2025-11-04T20:44:13","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T20:44:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/162989\/"},"modified":"2025-11-04T20:44:13","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T20:44:13","slug":"irelands-housing-crisis-to-last-another-15-years-department-of-finance-predicts-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/162989\/","title":{"rendered":"Ireland\u2019s housing crisis to last another 15 years, Department of Finance predicts \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ireland\u2019s housing crisis<\/a> is likely to persist for at least another 15 years, according to the Department of Finance<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Housing demand is not expected to peak until the early 2030s, it said, with \u201cpent-up demand\u201d not fully eliminated until at least 2040. <\/p>\n

The grim analysis was contained in Future Forty: A Fiscal and Economic Outlook to 2065, the department\u2019s assessment of the economic and fiscal challenges facing the State between now and 2065. <\/p>\n

The report based its estimate of future housing demand on current demographic trends, the growing preference for smaller households and the pent-up demand that has accumulated in recent years.<\/p>\n

In the central scenario, housing supply is assumed to reach 60,000 by 2030, a significant acceleration on the 30,300 delivered last year, \u201cand then remain at that level until no longer required\u201d.<\/p>\n

The report noted that the number of workers in residential construction would need to grow \u201cconsiderably\u201d, by 50,000 according to one estimate, \u201cto meet these targets\u201d.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0Median property price in Dublin 6 now almost \u20ac800,000, survey showsOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

The central projection also presumes that 25 per cent of newly-built dwellings after 2030 will be built as social homes, with 26 per cent of tenants in the rental market being eligible for social housing supports, including rent supports such as HAP (Housing Assistance Payment) and RAS (Rental Accommodation Scheme).<\/p>\n

This would see the overall cost of housing for the exchequer rise to 2.3 per cent of national income at its peak before falling \u201conce demand normalises\u201d by 2040.<\/p>\n

\"\"Tom O\u2019Brien of Nephin Energy on the importance of gas, the potential of biomethane, and whether our energy bills will come down <\/p>\n

The report noted that the continuous undersupply of housing in recent years had seen average house prices rise by 91 per cent from 2015 to the end of 2024 while open market rents have risen by 78 per cent.<\/p>\n

This compares with overall price inflation for the same period of 22 per cent. <\/p>\n

\u201cHigh housing costs pose significant challenges to the Irish economy, as they have increased the relative cost of living and are potentially impacting the country\u2019s capacity to attract and retain a highly skilled workforce,\u201d the department\u2019s report said.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0Government\u2019s new housing plan will affect property valuations for years, auctioneers sayOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

The report examined the long-term impacts of global megatrends such as climate change<\/a>, digitalisation and population ageing on the economy and the exchequer here.<\/p>\n

Climate change will reduce national income by more than 2 per cent by 2065, with most damage caused by flooding and sea level rise.<\/p>\n

The State\u2019s ageing population poses a potentially bigger risk to the public finances.<\/p>\n

There are currently 116 people in the labour force for every 100 not working. By 2065, there will, on current projections, be 98 people in the labour force for every 100 not working.<\/p>\n

Without corrective measures, this demographic shift could see the State\u2019s budget deficit could swell to 8 per cent of income while increasing the country\u2019s borrowing requirement to almost 150 per cent of national income.<\/p>\n

\u201cContinued inward migration will be vital to maintain growth in the labour force,\u201d the report said.<\/p>\n

If net migration were zero, the labour force would start to contract by 2035 with major repercussions for the economy.<\/p>\n

Total voted expenditure, a proxy for the size of the State, is projected to increase from 33 per cent of national income in 2025, to 39.2 per cent by 2065, \u201cat which point ageing-related expenditure (healthcare, long-term care and pensions) will account for 46 per cent of all voted expenditure\u201d, the report said.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough stark, these projections are consistent with the long-term trajectory across many advanced economies,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n

The prediction for the Republic\u2019s population, which was contained in a chapter published last month, ranges between 5.9 million and 7.9 million, depending on the assumed net migration and fertility rates. <\/p>\n

Publishing the report, Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe said: \u201cLong-term planning is more important than ever in a changing global landscape.\u201d<\/p>\n

[\u00a0Paschal Donohoe reviews The World\u2019s Worst Bet: How The Globalisation Gamble Went WrongOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

\u201cIreland has transformed in the last four decades from an emerging to a highly advanced economy,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis pace of change has been remarkable and unlike many other countries across the globe. It is unrealistic for us to expect it to continue at this pace,\u201d Mr Donohoe said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ireland\u2019s housing crisis is likely to persist for at least another 15 years, according to the Department of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":162990,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[9,10,442,22779,18,13,14,6,8752,19,56,17,11,12,15,16,5,46,7,8],"class_list":{"0":"post-162989","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-headlines","8":"tag-breaking-news","9":"tag-breakingnews","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-department-of-finance","12":"tag-eire","13":"tag-featured-news","14":"tag-featurednews","15":"tag-headlines","16":"tag-housing-crisis","17":"tag-ie","18":"tag-immigration","19":"tag-ireland","20":"tag-latest-news","21":"tag-latestnews","22":"tag-main-news","23":"tag-mainnews","24":"tag-news","25":"tag-paschal-donohoe","26":"tag-top-stories","27":"tag-topstories"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/115493382970385426","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/162989","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=162989"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/162989\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/162990"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=162989"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=162989"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=162989"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}