Topline<\/p>\n
Democratic New York State assemblymember Zohran Mamdani\u2019s odds of winning the New York City mayoral race reached nearly 95% in multiple betting markets Tuesday, hours before polls close on the race between him, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican nominee Curits Sliwa.<\/p>\n
Betting odds favored Mamdani by a large margin hours before polls closed. (Photo by LEONARDO MUNOZ\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/p>\n
AFP via Getty ImagesTimeline<\/p>\n
5:30 p.m. ESTMamdani\u2019s odds of victory reached 93% on prediction market Kalshi and as high as 94.6% on Polymarket on Tuesday afternoon.<\/p>\n
3 p.m. ESTCuomo\u2019s odds were at 7% on Kalshi and 5.5% on Polymarket around the same time, while Sliwa\u2019s odds of winning were around 1% on both betting sites.<\/p>\n
3 p.m. ESTVoter turnout in New York City reached over 1.4 million, the city\u2019s highest mayoral election turnout since 2001, when Republican Michael Bloomberg defeated Democrat Mark Green in a race that garnered 1.5 million votes.<\/p>\n
6 a.m. ESTVoter turnout in New York City reached over 1.4 million, the city\u2019s highest mayoral election turnout since 2001, when Republican Michael Bloomberg defeated Democrat Mark Green in a race that garnered 1.5 million votes.<\/p>\n
Get Forbes Breaking News Text Alerts<\/strong>: We\u2019re launching text message alerts so you’ll always know the biggest stories shaping the day\u2019s headlines. Text \u201cAlerts\u201d to (201) 335-0739 or sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n What Billionaires Have Gotten Involved In New York City\u2019s Election?<\/p>\n At least 26 billionaires<\/a> have sunk donations into the mayoral election, with $22 million worth of funds going to groups opposing Mamdani. Bloomberg donated $8.3 million to the Fix the City super PAC, which backs Cuomo and also received a donation from Airbnb cofounder Joseph Gebbia. The Lauder family also donated to Fix the City, dishing out $2.6 million to the super PAC and anti-Mamdani group Sensible City. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman put up $1.75 million to Fix the City and Defend NYC.<\/p>\n What Has Trump Vowed To Do If Mamdani Wins?<\/p>\n Trump urged voters to back Cuomo<\/a>, a former Democratic candidate running as an independent, a day before polls closed, saying he would rather see a Democrat win the election than a \u201ccommunist with no experience,\u201d referring to Mamdani, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Trump, who was born and raised in New York City, told \u201c60 Minutes\u201d days prior to the election it would be \u201chard\u201d to provide federal money for the city because \u201cif you have a communist running New York, all you’re doing is wasting the money you’re sending there.\u201d The president reiterated the idea Monday, saying in a Truth Social post \u201cit is highly unlikely that I will be contributing Federal Funds, other than the very minimum as required\u201d to New York City if Mamdani wins.<\/p>\n What Has Wall Street Said?<\/p>\n Wall Street has expressed concern about a Mamdani victory, with Dean Lyulkin, CEO of private investment firm Cardiff, telling Reuters<\/a> he was viewing it as a risk in 2026. He added, \u201cActual policy often turns out much more benign than campaign rhetoric, but if other major cities follow this pattern, markets may start pricing in more tax and regulatory risks.\u201d Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, also spoke to Reuters, noting that despite a potential Mamdani win, \u201cI don’t think we’re going to see the drastic program that he is proposing go into effect.\u201d Wall Street firms doing business in investing, advising and wealth management overwhelmingly donated to pro-Cuomo groups, according to a Business Insider<\/a> analysis, while contributions from research, human relations and corporate operations firms favored Mamdani.<\/p>\n Key Background<\/p>\n Mamdani won the Democratic nomination for mayor, as well as an endorsement from the Working Families Party, a progressive and left-leaning party, giving him two listings on the ballot<\/a>. He defeated Cuomo for the Democratic nomination with 56% of the vote in June, which is what led to Cuomo running as an independent candidate. Mamdani\u2019s campaign has turned Republican and Democratic heads alike for supporting policies that, if enacted, would raise the corporate tax, freeze rent for rent-stabilized apartments and make city buses fare free.<\/p>\n Further Reading<\/p>\n These Are The Billionaires Donors Behind Tuesday\u2019s Elections<\/a> (Forbes)<\/p>\n