{"id":167668,"date":"2025-11-07T09:32:06","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T09:32:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/167668\/"},"modified":"2025-11-07T09:32:06","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T09:32:06","slug":"us-tariffs-likely-push-japan-into-first-economic-contraction-in-six-quarters-reuters-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/167668\/","title":{"rendered":"US tariffs likely push Japan into first economic contraction in six quarters: Reuters poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

TOKYO, Nov 7 (Reuters) – Japan’s economy probably contracted for the first time in six quarters in the July-September period after being battered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff<\/a> policies, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.<\/p>\n

Gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms probably shrank an annualised 2.5% in the third quarter, according to the median forecast of 18 economists, after an annualised 2.2% expansion in the second quarter.<\/p>\n

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Without annualisation, the third-quarter contraction was estimated at 0.6%.<\/p>\n

Analysts attributed the slowdown to a slump in exports due to U.S. tariffs. External demand or net exports, which is exports minus imports, probably shaved 0.3 percentage points from the third-quarter GDP, after it added 0.3 points in the second quarter.<\/p>\n

Other negative factors include a decline in housing and inventory investment after front-loading in the previous quarter.<\/p>\n

“The Japanese economy posted an expansion that could be almost called “too good” through the first half of 2025,” analysts at SMBC Nikko Securities said in their analysis.<\/p>\n

“However, with the weight of newly imposed tariffs coming to the fore, it was compelled to undergo a correction at least temporarily.”<\/p>\n

Private consumption, which accounts for more than half Japan’s GDP, was expected to have inched up 0.1% in July-September, losing steam from 0.4% growth in April-June.<\/p>\n

Capital expenditure growth was estimated at 0.3%, the same as the previous quarter.<\/p>\n

The U.S. agreed to a 15% tariff rate on Japanese imports when Washington and Tokyo reached a deal in July, less than the initial 27.5% it had threatened on autos and 25% for most other goods.<\/p>\n

But the impact is seen as significant, especially for the auto industry, because the duties are still much higher than their previous rate of 2.5%.<\/p>\n

“With real wages stagnating<\/a>, personal consumption is also declining, suggesting that economic activity has entered a stagnation phase,” said Saisuke Sakai, chief Japan economist at Mizuho Research & Technologies.<\/p>\n

The government will release the July-September GDP data on November 17 at 8:50 a.m. (2350 GMT on November 16).<\/p>\n

Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Editing by Kate Mayberry<\/p>\n

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Purchase Licensing Rights<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"TOKYO, Nov 7 (Reuters) – Japan’s economy probably contracted for the first time in six quarters in the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":167669,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[82519,84363,2786,82703,79,82530,84146,82531,82710,82702,83115,83116,179,18,9207,45748,19,84365,17,11203,83122,82524,85212,82508,1540,84362,82534,83362,82533,88553,82707,83387,107,83127],"class_list":{"0":"post-167668","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-amers","9":"tag-apoll","10":"tag-asia","11":"tag-asxpac","12":"tag-business","13":"tag-destocabsm","14":"tag-destortao","15":"tag-destousbsm","16":"tag-destseabs","17":"tag-easia","18":"tag-eci","19":"tag-eco","20":"tag-economy","21":"tag-eire","22":"tag-gdp","23":"tag-gen","24":"tag-ie","25":"tag-infl","26":"tag-ireland","27":"tag-jp","28":"tag-mce","29":"tag-namer","30":"tag-plcy","31":"tag-pol","32":"tag-potus","33":"tag-rpoll","34":"tag-topcmb","35":"tag-topicbusiness-tariffs","36":"tag-topnws","37":"tag-tracc","38":"tag-trd","39":"tag-trf","40":"tag-us","41":"tag-wash"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/115507727196999276","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167668","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=167668"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/167668\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/167669"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=167668"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=167668"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=167668"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}