{"id":1707,"date":"2025-08-16T06:08:12","date_gmt":"2025-08-16T06:08:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/1707\/"},"modified":"2025-08-16T06:08:12","modified_gmt":"2025-08-16T06:08:12","slug":"yields-climb-as-investors-shrug-off-inflation-fears-ahead-of-trump-putin-summit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/1707\/","title":{"rendered":"Yields climb as investors shrug off inflation fears ahead of Trump-Putin summit"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li value=\"1\"><strong>PPI surprises to upside \u2013 but investors push it aside.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li value=\"2\"><strong>Bonds retreat, sending yields up.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li value=\"3\"><strong>Oil and gold await today\u2019s summit.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li value=\"4\"><strong>Lots of Eco data.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li value=\"5\"><strong>Try the Classic Philly Cheese Steak.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>PPI Comes in HOT, HOT, HOT.<\/p>\n<p>Final Demand m\/m and Ex-Food &amp; Energy m\/m both surged +0.9% \u2014 up from 0% last month and well above the +0.2% estimate. Final Demand y\/y jumped to +3.3% (from 2.3%), smashing the +2.5% forecast. Ex-Food &amp; Energy y\/y rose to +3.7%, from +2.6% last month, beating the 3% estimate.<\/p>\n<p>What does this mean? Producer prices have jumped and if they stick, consumer prices will likely follow next month. That all but kills any talk of a 50-bps cut and even puts a 25-bps cut in jeopardy. The higher PPI tells us that companies are absorbing the tariff costs rather than passing them to consumers \u2014 but at what price? Margin compression and the risk of earnings pressure in the 3rd and 4th quarters. For now, the market\u2019s limited pullback suggests investors aren\u2019t overly concerned\u2026 yet. Yet it is the key word here \u2014 because companies can\u2019t absorb those costs forever.<\/p>\n<p>You\u2019d think <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/markets\/equities\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">stocks<\/a> would have sold off, but they didn\u2019t. We saw early weakness, but no \u201cblood in the streets\u201d. The market seems to be assuming the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/macroeconomics\/central-banks\/fed\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Fed<\/a> will treat this PPI spike as a one-off and still lean toward cuts beginning in September, especially if the labor market continues to \u2018weaken\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>Bottom line: the path to lower <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/rates-charts\/rates\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">rates<\/a> is never a straight line. This isn\u2019t the number we wanted to see \u2014 but it\u2019s no reason to panic. Stay disciplined. Stick to your plan.<\/p>\n<p>By the end of the day &#8211; The Dow lost 11 pts, the S&amp;P gained 2, the Nasdaq lost 2.5 pts, the Russell gave up 29 pts, the Transports lost 132 pts, the Equal Weight S&amp;P gave up 49 pts, while the Mag 7 ADDED 125 pts.<\/p>\n<p>The late-day rally was fueled by strength in BIG Tech (just look at Mag 7) and solid gains in Financials and Healthcare \u2014 both finishing at +0.5%, exactly the sectors I\u2019ve been highlighting for weeks. The rest of the market didn\u2019t share the enthusiasm: all nine other sectors closed lower. Basic Materials led the laggards, down 1%, followed by Industrials and Consumer Staples (-0.9%), Real Estate (-0.7%), Utilities (-0.7%), Tech (-0.25%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.1%), while Communications managed to finish flat.<\/p>\n<p>Now bonds took a bit of a hit on the back of that news \u2013 the TLT and TLH both lost a little ground \u2013 falling 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. The hotter PPI raised concerns about persistent inflation and lowered expectations of aggressive rate cuts (think 50 bps), but bonds did stabilize as the PPI components driving the increase were less relevant to the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. The 2 yr rose 7 bps to end the day at 3.73%, the 10 yr rose 5 bps to end the day yielding 4.28%&#8230;..this morning <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/bonds\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">bonds<\/a> are churning in place as any idea of no cut fades away.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/markets\/commodities\/energy\/oil\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Oil<\/a> bounced off of its recent low at 62.28 \u2013 a level I thought would find temporary support\u2026It rose $1.20 yesterday to end the day at $63.95 \u2013 this morning it is down 50 cts at $63.45\u2026.all as the world awaits the meeting between Trump and Putin in Anchorage, Alaska.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/brokers\/best-brokers-to-trade-gold\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Gold<\/a> is also in wait and see mode\u2026. trading between the trendlines\u2026$3370\/$3415\u2026. A deal with Russia will see traders\u2019 cash in and take some profits off the table\u2026. should Vlad disappoint \u2013 then watch <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/education\/guides\/gold\/how-to-trade-gold-investing-in-the-biggest-commodity\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">gold<\/a> push higher.<\/p>\n<p>The focus today will be squarely on the Trump\u2013Putin summit, scheduled for 3:00 pm EST \/ 11:00 am AKDT in Anchorage. All eyes are on what comes next. A deal with Putin would likely send stocks higher, while Aerospace and Defense could see a short-term dip in reduced perceived demand \u2014 but I think any weakness there would be temporary.<\/p>\n<p>Remember, Trump has warned of tougher secondary sanctions on Russia if no deal is reached \u2014 potentially targeting India and China if they continue buying Russian oil and fueling the war. There\u2019s been plenty of chatter about land grabs and territorial concessions, but don\u2019t expect final decisions today. The immediate goal is simply to stop the fighting.<\/p>\n<p>Before any headlines out of Anchorage, we\u2019ve already had a batch of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/economic-calendar\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">economic data<\/a> \u2014 and after yesterday\u2019s hot PPI, investors, traders, and algos were paying close attention. Advance <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/news\/us-retail-sales-are-expected-to-increase-further-in-july-ahead-of-tariff-hikes-202508150600\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Retail Sales<\/a> m\/m came in at +0.6% (unchanged from last month), Ex-Autos &amp; Gas at +0.3% (down from +0.6%), Industrial Production flat, Manufacturing Production flat, Capacity Utilization steady at 77.6, and the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey at 62.0.<\/p>\n<p>Now to the real pre-market action: U.S. futures are mixed \u2014 Dow futures are up sharply, +280 pts, thanks almost entirely to UnitedHealth (UNH). Word is that some of the BIG BOYS are dipping their toes. Buffett\u2019s Berkshire Hathaway, David Tepper\u2019s Appaloosa Management, and Michael Burry\u2019s Scion Capital have all taken big positions in the beaten-down Dow component. Buffett reportedly bought $1.6 billion worth, Tepper took a $764 million stake, and Burry flipped from short to long.<\/p>\n<p>This morning\u2019s 12% jump in UNH is doing all the heavy lifting in the Dow. The S&amp;P is up 4 (again, mostly UNH), the Nasdaq is down 40, and the Russell is flat at +1. Strip UNH out, and all the indexes would be in negative territory. So, before you panic about missing out \u2014 just breathe.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s be honest \u2014 the market is frothy. Valuations are rich. Record highs sound great, but trees don\u2019t grow to the sky. Nothing rises forever, and assuming stocks will keep climbing endlessly is dangerous. Don\u2019t let FOMO make your decisions. This is where discipline and plan matter most.<\/p>\n<p>European markets are all higher again\u2026..Italy taking the lead up 1.1%, France +0.7%, Spain +0.5%, Euro Stoxx + 0.35%, Germany + 0.3% and the UK up only 0.1%.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P closed at 6468 \u2013 up 1 pt. Now, while the excitement continues \u2013 it is beginning to feel like a blow off \u2013 FOMO top\u2026 (Fear of Missing Out). All that means is proceed with caution\u2026Remember \u2013 you are invested, so you are participating\u2026.Just be careful how you allocate new money into the markets\u2026.Look at those underperforming sectors (healthcare) to add to you outperforming sectors\u2026to help you balance out your portfolio.<\/p>\n<p>The VIX remain well into the complacent zone\u2026. which should be a warning flat.<\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq remains \u2018overbot\u2019 while the others remain within the normal trading zone\u2026.yes, hinting at overbot, but not officially overbot\u2026.Remember \u2013 all you need is just one catalyst for the market to pull back \u2013 and while I thought it would have been yesterday\u2019s PPI \u2013 it wasn\u2019t\u2026..or maybe it will be\u2026The story isn\u2019t over yet\u2026.<\/p>\n<p>I remain in the camp that we are toppy \u2013\u00a0which only means I am more cautious on where I allocate. Doing nothing is a decision \u2013 remember \u2013 you don\u2019t have to do something all the time\u2026. Let your portfolio do the work\u2026. We still have the end of August and the whole month of September to work through.<\/p>\n<p>Now I\u2019m from Boston, but I love Classic Philly Cheese Steak.<\/p>\n<p>The Philly cheese steak was born in Philadelphia in the 1930s, credited to Pat Olivieri, a hot dog vendor. One day, Pat decided to grill some thinly sliced beef with onions for his lunch. A passing cab driver caught a whiff and asked for the same \u2014 and loved it. Soon, Pat\u2019s simple steak sandwich drew crowds, and his hot dog stand evolved into Pat\u2019s King of Steaks. Cheese wasn\u2019t part of the original, but by the 1940s, Cheez Whiz, provolone, or American cheese became standard additions. Over time, it became a Philadelphia icon \u2014 thin-sliced beef, grilled onions, melted cheese, and a soft roll \u2014 beloved far beyond the city\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n<p>This is one of my favorites.<\/p>\n<p>Start with your Taleggio cream sauce\u2026. Cut up the cheese and melt it slowly in a double boiler\u2026. with heavy cream\u2026 Then, blend it till smooth. Now set aside.<\/p>\n<p>I use Rib Eye \u2013 slightly frozen \u2013 easier to cut. Slice it into thin strips and set aside.<\/p>\n<p>Slice up your onions and peppers and mushrooms. \u2013 Saut\u00e9 all of these in a saut\u00e9 pan until soft and delicious. Season with s&amp;p. Set aside. Do not wipe out the saut\u00e9 pan\u2026we are going to use it for the steak.<\/p>\n<p>Now \u2013 using the same saut\u00e9 pan \u2013 turn up the heat and add the sliced steak. Season with s&amp;p. Once browned \u2013 top with the onions, peppers and mushroom \u2013 then add in your slices of cheese \u2013 I use provolone, but you can use whatever you like.<\/p>\n<p>Take you submarine roll, layer it with the taleggio cream sauce and then place the steak, onions, peppers and mushrooms and cheese in the roll\u2026 Slice in half and serve. That\u2019s all you need.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"PPI surprises to upside \u2013 but investors push it aside. Bonds retreat, sending yields up. Oil and gold&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1708,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[989,79,1739,179,18,2093,19,185,17,2092],"class_list":{"0":"post-1707","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-bonds","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-commodities","11":"tag-economy","12":"tag-eire","13":"tag-equities","14":"tag-ie","15":"tag-inflation","16":"tag-ireland","17":"tag-macroeconomics"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1707","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1707"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1707\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1708"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1707"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}