Economists need that data now more than ever. For much of the year, top economists<\/a>, including<\/a> Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have said we\u2019re in a \u201clow hire, low fire\u201d jobs market. For much of the year, employers were laconic in hiring, and seemed afraid to fire their workers; perhaps still wounded from the pandemic-era \u201cGreat Resignation.<\/a>\u201d UBS isn\u2019t alone on Wall Street in worrying that, maybe the \u201clow-fire\u201d part of the equation isn\u2019t quite true anymore.<\/p>\n Now, \u201cthere are plenty of available workers that, on the whole, businesses probably don\u2019t feel the need to hold on to workers for longer than necessary,\u201d\u00a0Veronica Clark, a Citigroup<\/a> Inc. economist, told Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Dan North, senior economist at Allianz<\/a> Trade Americas, also told Bloomberg that \u201cyou\u2019ve got a substantial number of well-established companies making pretty big head cuts.\u201d<\/p>\n Firing is running higher than advertised, UBS argued, citing the fact that \u201cunemployment insurance claims, layoff announcements and WARN notices have all been running ahead of the pre-pandemic pace. Even the lagged Business Employment Dynamics data, the gold standard of data on job creation and job destruction dynamics has been showing the pace of job loss at or above the pre-pandemic pace through the latest data.\u201d<\/p>\n Indeed, cuts have accelerated sharply. October saw 157,000 layoffs announced by corporations, per industry standard Challenger, Gray & Christmas<\/a>, the highest monthly total since July 2020. Technology and warehousing were hit especially hard, with cuts also linked to automation and artificial intelligence.\u200b<\/p>\n Story Continues <\/p>\n The year-to-date tally? A startling 760,000 seasonally adjusted cuts through October, far outpacing the same period in 2024 and running higher than any year since 2009 \u2014 the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis. Major companies are taking action: Amazon<\/a> cut 14,000 corporate roles, UPS<\/a> has slashed 48,000 jobs over the past year, and Target<\/a> eliminated nearly 2,000 staff in a single sweep.\u200b<\/p>\n Workers are getting thrown into a growing pool of others not finding jobs. UBS likens the job market to a bathtub: with outflows (layoffs) steady and inflows (hiring) slowing, the water level (total jobs) is bound to fall. The hiring rate, as measured by multiple business surveys, has dropped to levels historically seen only in recessions. Excluding healthcare and social assistance, which have been relatively steady, private-sector payrolls have been declining by an average of 36,000 jobs per month.<\/p>\n Since the start of the year, household employment as measured by the main government survey has been falling by about 72,000 jobs per month through August. Such a pace is \u201cwell below\u201d the rate required to keep up with population growth, let alone maintain a stable unemployment rate, which has now crept up to a post-2021 high. Labor force participation has slipped, and more than 800,000 people have left the labor force but say they still want a job.\u200b<\/p>\n Economists note the broadest measure of underemployment, known as U-6, has jumped by 0.6 percentage points since January to 8.1%. That\u2019s now 1.3 percentage points higher than at the end of 2019. Notably, the rise isn\u2019t just about people out of work: more Americans are working part-time for economic reasons, another classic sign of slackening demand. \u201cThat is exactly the opposite of what should happen under a negative labor supply shock stemming from immigration,\u201d UBS wrote, referring to the Trump administration\u2019s argument that immigration restrictions would tighten the labor market.<\/p>\n Job openings continue to decline: as of the end of October, Indeed.com<\/a> reported that postings had sunk to their lowest level since 2021<\/a>, with almost every sector seeing year-over-year drops. Meanwhile, the weekly average of initial unemployment claims is running above 2023\u2019s level and continuing claims are nearing a post-pandemic high.\u200b<\/p>\n And even the openings that appear active, Pingle argued, may not be tied to real hiring efforts.<\/p>\n The hiring rate \u201cconsistent with recession\u201d has been a gap \u201cso large that seemingly many of the openings probably are not seeing much effort to be filled,\u201d according to Pingle. \u201cWe can also look at the 14 million people not working but who want a job or are searching for one, or the 2 million collecting unemployment benefits. Given that abundance, it would seem that at least some of the openings do not appear anxious to be filled.\u201d<\/p>\n Not only are workers losing jobs, but the market for new opportunities is shrinking as well. Seasonal hiring plans for the holidays are running well below pre-pandemic norms. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports a combined September\/October total of just 400,000 announced holiday roles \u2014 sharply lower than the 625,000 average for the 2014\u201319 period and even below recent years. Key retailers like Target aren\u2019t even disclosing numbers, and the National Retail Federation suggests seasonal jobs could be down 40% from a year ago.\u200b<\/p>\n <\/p>\n