BEIJING, Nov 11 (Reuters) – China’s carbon dioxide emissions were flat year-on-year in the third quarter, extending a now 18-month streak of flat or falling emissions, an analysis for climate publication Carbon Brief found.<\/p>\n
The trend, which started in March 2024, means CO2 emissions could fall this year in the absence of any year-end spike, showed the analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta of Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.<\/p>\n
Sign up here.<\/a><\/p>\n CO2 output rose 0.8% in 2024 after a post-pandemic rebound at the start of the year, a previous Carbon Brief analysis found.<\/p>\n The government in September pledged to cap its carbon emissions by 2030 and, by 2035, reduce<\/a> them by 7% to 10% from that as-yet unknown peak.<\/p>\n That commitment was China’s first to reduce emissions, though the scale of the cuts fell short of broader expectations. The EU climate commissioner called it “disappointing”.<\/p>\n The U.S. pullback from international climate agreements under President Donald Trump has created an opening for China<\/a> to play a greater role in the matter, including at the U.N. COP30 climate summit in Brazil, which began on Monday.<\/p>\n Flat emissions in the third quarter of 2025 came as rising chemical sector emissions offset declines or plateaus elsewhere.<\/p>\n Transport emissions fell 5% and power-sector emissions were flat in the third quarter, even as electricity demand grew 6.1%, the analysis found.<\/p>\n Electricity generation from wind, solar, nuclear and hydropower covered some 90% of that increase in demand. Gas-fired generation also cut into coal’s share.<\/p>\n But growth in the chemical industry kept overall emissions from falling. Plastic production grew 12% on the year in January-September, driven by surging domestic demand for plastic in food delivery and e-commerce.<\/p>\n China has also ramped up domestic production of polyethylene, the most widely used type of plastic, in response to the trade war with the U.S., the analysis said.<\/p>\n The government has also encouraged refineries to shift to chemical production to make up for a drop in transport fuel demand amid a widespread shift to electric vehicles.<\/p>\n Reporting by Colleen Howe; Editing by Christopher Cushing<\/p>\n Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab<\/a><\/p>\n