{"id":227183,"date":"2025-12-11T10:03:11","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T10:03:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/227183\/"},"modified":"2025-12-11T10:03:11","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T10:03:11","slug":"have-property-prices-reached-their-peak-industry-experts-give-their-take-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/227183\/","title":{"rendered":"Have property prices reached their peak? Industry experts give their take \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

For those saving to put a deposit down on their first home, the goalposts keep moving, with property<\/a> prices in the State rising year on year.<\/p>\n

If you finally reach your savings goal, it\u2019s hard to know if its worth taking the plunge or holding off in case the market slows down.<\/p>\n

With that in mind, The Irish Times has asked property experts where the market stands and whether house prices are close to reaching their peak. <\/p>\n

Demand continues to outstrip supply, says John McCartney, lecturer in property economics at TU Dublin<\/a> and adjunct associate professor at University College Dublin (UCD)<\/a>, pointing to house price inflation nationally, which is likely to reach more than 7 per cent in 2025 for the ninth time in 12 years.<\/p>\n

However, the dearth of supply is not the fault of under-building, McCartney says.<\/p>\n

Access to homes grew in line with the number of households that were formed between 2011 and 2022 and, with population growth slowing and completions of new homes picking up since then, this remains the case. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe excess demand comes from the weight of money chasing property,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\"DrDr John McCartney, lecturer in property economics at TU Dublin and adjunct associate professor at UCD <\/p>\n

Although real earnings have fallen since 2020, McCartney explains that this has been offset by the following factors: the fact that nearly half a million more people are working; that easing of mortgage rules mean homebuyers can borrow more; the implementation of Government subsidy schemes and the bigger role that has been taken by the State in buying, leasing and renting properties. <\/p>\n

[\u00a0At a glance: How have Dublin property prices changed from post-crash to now?Opens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

He adds that although the mainstream debate on housing fixates on the number of homes being built, that number and property prices themselves will continue to rise as long as the labour market stays strong and public finances can sustain the Government\u2019s strategy \u201cof boosting demand to support prices\u201d. And \u201cnothing suggests that the wheels are about to fall off this wagon\u201d.<\/p>\n

Certain potential risks to the economy have been present for some time without having a significant impact on housing, McCartney says, pointing to the volatile US administration, military conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, overruns in Government spending and the narrow tax base.<\/p>\n

As well as that, the next election remains years away and, \u201cperhaps surprisingly given the squeeze on living standards, there has only been muted pushback against the recent budget, which sacrificed energy credits and tax-band indexation in favour of development incentives\u201d.<\/p>\n

While \u201cvulnerabilities\u201d build up gradually, the events that could trigger a potential economic crisis are \u201cunpredictable\u201d, McCartney says.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf and when such an event occurs, Ireland could be fighting two fires: the economic crisis itself and a housing crash arising from the State\u2019s inability to maintain its escalating demand supports.\u201d<\/p>\n

Orla Hegarty, assistant professor at the school of architecture, planning and environmental policy at UCD, agrees that \u201cwe will most likely continue to see prices rise and the [housing] crisis deepen, barring some external shock\u201d.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0House price inflation at 7.6% in September as supply pressures continue to fuel demandOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

The only way to achieve affordability at scale for buyers, renters and the exchequer, she says, would be to \u201cproduce homes at cost rather than at market prices\u201d.<\/p>\n

Hegarty adds that the Government has been incentivising supply at a high cost in a \u201cmistaken belief\u201d that more supply and wage inflation will achieve affordability.<\/p>\n

\"MortgageMortgage adviser Michael Dowling <\/p>\n

Mortgage adviser Michael Dowling also concurs that prices will continue to rise next year, at a rate of 3 per cent, he estimates.<\/p>\n

However, the good news for prospective buyers, says Dowling, is that interest rates are set to remain stable, and that a fixed rate of 3 per cent will be available for those buying new homes with Ber ratings of B3 and above.<\/p>\n

Completions in the mortgage market will increase by 8 per cent, he predicts \u2013 from \u20ac14.4 billion to \u20ac15.6 billion.<\/p>\n

Sherry FitzGerald<\/a> chief executive Marian Finnegan and DNG chief executive Keith Lowe also predict prices will continue to rise next year \u2013 with Finnegan predicting they will rise at a rate of 6 to 8 per cent and Lowe predicting a rate of 3 to 4 per cent.<\/p>\n

\"MarianMarian Finnegan, Sherry FitzGerald chief executive <\/p>\n

Due to the number of new house completions failing to keep pace with demand, \u201ctransaction activity is effectively capped, with year-to-date sales broadly in line with the same period last year\u201d, Finnegan says.<\/p>\n

\u201cIreland\u2019s housing market remains defined by constrained supply, strong underlying demand and a gradual policy-led shift toward increased output \u2013 conditions that will continue to shape price trends in the years ahead,\u201d says Lowe. <\/p>\n

He highlights legislative changes due in March for buy-to-let properties accelerating the trend of small landlords exiting the market and the reintroduction of bridging finance as factors likely to boost the supply of second-hand homes.<\/p>\n

Adding that Government actions and incentives, ranging from improved planning pathways to support for apartment delivery and affordable purchase schemes, will gradually help increase new homes output.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs these factors combine, we anticipate that house-price inflation will begin to ease to more sustainable increases over the coming years as the market slowly moves toward a more balanced equilibrium between supply and demand,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For those saving to put a deposit down on their first home, the goalposts keep moving, with property…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":227184,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[73],"tags":[79,18,24078,8752,21681,19,17,22736,1658],"class_list":["post-227183","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-business","tag-eire","tag-first-time-buyer","tag-housing-crisis","tag-housing-demand","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-new-to-the-market","tag-property"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/115700368212524059","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227183","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=227183"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227183\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/227184"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=227183"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=227183"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=227183"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}