{"id":246215,"date":"2025-12-22T17:53:09","date_gmt":"2025-12-22T17:53:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/246215\/"},"modified":"2025-12-22T17:53:09","modified_gmt":"2025-12-22T17:53:09","slug":"chinas-record-trade-surplus-could-prompt-protectionist-response-in-2026-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/246215\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s record trade surplus could prompt protectionist response in 2026: report"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>While China has already logged a <a target=\"_self\" class=\"e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb ecgc78b0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/economy\/economic-indicators\/article\/3335551\/chinas-exports-rebound-november-after-trade-war-thaw?module=inline&amp;pgtype=article\" title=\"\" data-qa=\"BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">record-breaking trade surplus<\/a> in the first 11 months of 2025, that milestone could be a harbinger of more protectionist pushback, an American research firm said on Monday \u2013 a development that could complicate the country\u2019s efforts to meet its economic growth target in 2026.<\/p>\n<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">Though export performance remains the \u201cmost important\u201d variable for China&#8217;s real economic growth rate next year, trade measures adopted by other countries and weaker demand will also have an impact, according to Rhodium Group co-founder Daniel Rosen.<\/p>\n<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">Changes to external demand and inventory restocking in developed economies \u2013 which the International Monetary Fund expects will see a continuous slowdown in 2026 \u2013 remain risks to China\u2019s export hopes according to Monday\u2019s report from Rhodium, which Rosen co-authored.<\/p>\n<p>In particular, Europe or emerging markets could \u201cpush back more strongly\u201d against Chinese trade practices, he said, building on or augmenting restrictions that have <a target=\"_self\" class=\"e1yy41x40 ef9u0v01 css-1ankfgb ecgc78b0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/china\/politics\/article\/3336130\/mexico-slaps-tariffs-50-cent-chinese-goods-us-trade-pact-review-looms?module=inline&amp;pgtype=article\" title=\"\" data-qa=\"BaseLink-renderAnchor-StyledAnchor\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">already been placed<\/a> on imports of the country\u2019s goods.<\/p>\n<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">In the first 11 months of 2025, China\u2019s trade surplus surpassed the US$1 trillion benchmark set in the whole of last year \u2013 an achievement Rosen attributed to the country\u2019s endeavours to diversify its trade and the depreciation of the real exchange rate, a trend he said was consistent with domestic deflationary pressures.<\/p>\n<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">\u201cThese lower prices have allowed China to diversify its exports away from the United States,\u201d Rosen added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"While China has already logged a record-breaking trade surplus in the first 11 months of 2025, that milestone&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":246216,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[2000,1793,79,69863,381,2706,128825,128824,78478,128828,179,18,2219,10170,123872,19,31763,16243,17,128827,128826,3429],"class_list":{"0":"post-246215","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-asean","9":"tag-beijing","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-central-financial-and-economic-affairs-commission","12":"tag-china","13":"tag-china-economy","14":"tag-china-fdi","15":"tag-china-gdp","16":"tag-china-us","17":"tag-daniel-rosen","18":"tag-economy","19":"tag-eire","20":"tag-european-union","21":"tag-exports","22":"tag-han-wenxiu","23":"tag-ie","24":"tag-imports","25":"tag-international-monetary-fund","26":"tag-ireland","27":"tag-manufacturing-investment","28":"tag-rhodium-group","29":"tag-trade-war"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/115764501191221496","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246215","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=246215"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/246215\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/246216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=246215"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=246215"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=246215"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}