{"id":28049,"date":"2025-08-28T05:22:20","date_gmt":"2025-08-28T05:22:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/28049\/"},"modified":"2025-08-28T05:22:20","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T05:22:20","slug":"china-remains-absent-from-us-soybean-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/28049\/","title":{"rendered":"China Remains Absent from US Soybean Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bloomberg\u2019s Hallie Gu and Clarice Couto reported<\/a> that \u201cjust days before the start of the US export season for soybeans, the world\u2019s top importer doesn\u2019t appear to have bought a single American cargo for the coming year.<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe impasse between China and the US \u2014 long its second-biggest supplier \u2014 comes as the two governments negotiate an end to the trade hostilities that have roiled commerce between the countries since Donald Trump returned to the presidency,\u201d Gu and Couto. \u201cAmerican farmers have said the stalemate leaves them headed toward a financial precipice, but US government data suggests that Chinese buyers are standing pat.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"Courtesy of Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

\u201cChina imposed retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans in March, making cargoes less competitive. The US harvest typically starts in September, which marks the shift from one export season to the next. Chinese mills that crush the oilseed into animal feed will usually book ahead to take advantage of the cheaper prices and ensure their needs are met for the first few weeks or months of the crop year,\u201d Gu and Couto reported.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe hold-up this time seems to be the trade talks that have been extended to Nov. 10, with Beijing in no mood to give up a bargaining chip,\u201d Gu and Couto reported. \u201cAlthough Chinese commodities purchases are just one aspect of the discussions, during the first Trump administration, soybeans in particular loomed large as a way to help close what the US characterized as an unfair trade deficit with China.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe market is highly seasonal, with American supplies dominating until the southern hemisphere harvest is gathered and shipments from China\u2019s top supplier, Brazil, become available. That could in theory mean a shortage until the next wave of Brazilian beans is ready from February,\u201d Gu and Couto reported. \u201cThe hope, of course, is that normal service will resume after Washington and Beijing strike a deal favorable to both their farming constituencies. But if that\u2019s too tall an order, the consensus among traders and analysts is that Brazil should have enough old-crop stockpiles to cover the gap, while China could always tap its own huge reserves to meet its needs.\u201d<\/p>\n

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\ud83c\udf31In recent years, 80% to 90% of U.S. soybean exports to China occur from November to April. Checks \u231a\ufe0f. Farm country needs it.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a look global soybean exports into China from the U.S., Brazil and the rest of the World since 2020. I\u2019ll talk about this and other risks in\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/6BgKfI04C0<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 John Newton (@New10_AgEcon) August 26, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Soybean Prices Falling Near or Below $9 in Some Locations<\/p>\n

AgWeb\u2019s Tyne Morgan reported<\/a> that \u201cfarmers in the Northern Plains are facing cash soybean prices below $9, and with China absent from the soybean export market, $8 soybeans could continue to be a reality this harvest<\/strong>. In fact, Dan Basse, president and founder of AgResource Company, says the Chinese government is continuing to instruct Chinese importers to not buy U.S. soybeans. Until that changes, soybean prices are likely to remain low.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cSimilar to the previous trade war, it seems farmers are on the edge of the spear when it comes to the impact, with soybean prices sliding to levels well below break-even. With basis crashing, North Dakota seems to be hit especially hard. Just how low are prices?\u201d Morgan reported. \u201cIn Maddock, N.D., basis is negative $1.65, with cash soybeans sitting at $8.83 on Tuesday. In Carrington, N.D., basis is negative $1.45, which brings the price to $9.03 cash.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAt those levels, farmers are looking at losing even more equity this year,\u201d Morgan reported. \u201cThe American Soybean Association sent a letter to President Trump last week warning of dire long-term economic outcomes for farmers if the country continues to not buy U.S. soybeans.\u201d<\/p>\n

Soybean Farmers Urge Trump to Make Deal with China<\/p>\n

Last week, Reuters\u2019 Leah Douglas reported<\/a> that \u201cU.S. soybean farmers urged President Donald Trump in a Tuesday letter to reach a trade deal with China that secures significant soybean purchase agreements, warning of dire long-term economic outcomes if the country continues to shun the U.S. crop.<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n

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Today, ASA President Caleb Ragland sent a letter to President Trump urging swift action to resolve the U.S.\u2013China #trade<\/a> dispute. Soybean #farmers<\/a> cannot weather another prolonged trade war. https:\/\/t.co\/DGYBaoyN7w<\/a> #Soybeans<\/a> #Tariffs<\/a> #AgPolicy<\/a> @WhiteHouse<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/3APnczjZk0<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 American Soybean Association (@ASA_Soybeans) August 19, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u201c\u2018Soybean farmers are under extreme financial stress. Prices continue to drop and at the same time our farmers are paying significantly more for inputs and equipment. U.S. soybean farmers cannot survive a prolonged trade dispute with our largest customer,\u2019 said the letter sent from the American Soybean Association to Trump on Tuesday,\u201d Douglas reported. \u201cChina\u2019s turn to Brazilian soybeans could cost U.S. farmers billions. China bought 54% of U.S. soybean exports in the 2023-2024 marketing year, worth $13.2 billion, according to the ASA. The country\u2019s soybean imports hit a record July high this year.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201c\u2018The further into the autumn we get without reaching an agreement with China on soybeans, the worse the impacts will be on U.S. soybean farmers,\u2019 said the letter,\u201d Douglas reported.<\/p>\n