Who knows what happens next, but more volatility seems certain, both because of the US president\u2019s unpredictability and the bubble valuations of AI-related shares and many other assets. <\/p>\n
And, as well as the \u201cunknown knowns\u201d \u2013 such as what will happen to share prices \u2013 there are hidden corners where risk is lurking.<\/p>\n
The International Monetary Fund\u2019s (IMF) 2025 annual report on global financial stability<\/a>, published late last year, warned that stability risks remain \u201celevated.\u201d<\/p>\n In its latest financial stability report, the Central Bank of Ireland<\/a> pointed to \u201ca clear disconnect between economic uncertainty and the pricing of risk in financial markets.\u201d The regulators, in other words, feel that even if markets remain buoyant, warning lights are flashing orange.<\/p>\n Here is what to watch.<\/p>\n Gold and precious metals<\/b><\/p>\n Gold is the classic contra-indicator. When it shoots higher, get worried. It hit the headlines during the Greenland crisis, heading to record highs, trading close to $4,900 (\u20ac4,187) per ounce on Wednesday, and on Thursday it has eased just slightly to about $4,850. <\/p>\n This is up 12 per cent so far this year and 75 per cent ahead of one year earlier. And despite the dialling-down of tensions, forecasters feel there is more to come, with Goldman Sachs, the investment bank on Thursday predicting a year-end price of $5,400.<\/p>\n The story here is clear enough. Investors looking for a safe place to put their money \u2013 a hedge against uncertainty for their \u2013 portfolios are going back to basics. <\/p>\n Normally a \u201csafe haven\u201d would be US treasuries \u2013 or government bonds \u2013 but Trump\u2019s policies have led to concerns about this market, while inflationary fears have also led to a reversal in the Japanese bond market.<\/p>\n With reliable havens in short supply, gold has prospered. And silver prices have also gone on an extraordinary run, trebling over the past year to about $95 an ounce. Shortage of supply and its use in the manufacture of green technology have also been factors here.<\/p>\n If real trouble is going to hit, it will be reflected here. The US has a massive budget deficit and needs to borrow money to fund it and roll over maturing debt. Selling treasuries \u2013 borrowing money from investors \u2013 is how they do this and the cost the US pays for this borrowing is vital for its national finances.<\/p>\n This explains why US treasury secretary Scott Bessent<\/a> was so touchy when a Deutsche Bank analysts wrote that Europe could sell down some of its massive $8 trillion holdings of US financial assets due to the Greenland political dispute with the US. Bessent said the bank\u2019s chief executive had rung him to say this did not represent the views of the bank. <\/p>\n Some kind of organised, politically driven sell-off of US debt looks unlikely. But there is talk, nonetheless, of a \u201csell America\u201d trade \u2013 speculation that Trump\u2019s unpredictable and destabilising policies are leading investors to gradually move out of US assets over time, weakening the treasury market and the value of the US dollar. <\/p>\n The move by Trump to gain control of the US Federal Reserve Board and thus US interest rates has increased investor concern, as this could spur inflation and damage the value of their investments. <\/p>\n Meanwhile higher returns on Japanese bonds are likely to encourage investors there \u2013 also big treasury buyers \u2013 to keep more money at home. Wobbles in US treasuries and the dollar affect the world. So this is a vital area to watch, with the dollar already weakening over the past year and US longer-term interest rates edging higher.<\/p>\n Share prices are, of course, the traditional indicator we all watch. There are two key points here. One is that investors are already concerned that prices have run ahead too far based on hopes from the returns from artificial intelligence (AI) for the big companies investing in it. <\/p>\n While no one disputes the importance of AI, how exactly it will boost corporate profitability among users and what companies will benefit from this \u2013 and when \u2013 still remain in question. <\/p>\n This week Satya Nadella, the Microsoft chief executive, warned that AI could become a speculative bubble unless its use spreads beyond the tech sector and is adopted by companies more generally. The second point about shares is that in times of uncertainty like this the mood can quickly turn and concerns that have been discussed for months suddenly become reasons to sell. <\/p>\n The US president said in his Davos speech that the stock market could \u201cdouble\u201d. This seems optimistic, to say the least. After wobbling last April and again later in the year in the face of its tariff threats, markets have moved strongly forward. Today they are stronger after tensions eased on Greenland. Tomorrow, who knows?<\/p>\n Crypto<\/b><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1754647931518-c07d65db-55b5-463e-ae51-976300c5837e.jpeg\"\/)
Old order \u2018not coming back\u2019 as Trump overshadows World Economic ForumUS government bonds and the dollar<\/b><\/p>\n![\"Microsoft](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/ME6JF7CNKDLK2M72F5JIMXAPOU.jpg\")
Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella. Photograph: Fabrice Coffrini\/Getty Images) Share prices<\/b><\/p>\n
![\"Non-bank](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/LWZNKYPT6RGKXJUJXYTNCSLCCM.jpg\")
Non-bank lenders supply more than a third of the financing requirements of Irish SMEs. Photograph: iStock Non-bank finance<\/b><\/p>\n