{"id":309830,"date":"2026-01-29T13:46:07","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T13:46:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/309830\/"},"modified":"2026-01-29T13:46:07","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T13:46:07","slug":"kiwis-turn-upbeat-on-housing-just-dont-expect-a-2026-boom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/309830\/","title":{"rendered":"Kiwis turn upbeat on housing \u2013 just don\u2019t expect a 2026 boom"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cOn the whole New Zealand\u2019s housing market is showing tentative signs of improvement, but the same rate of recovery can\u2019t be applied everywhere, it\u2019s quite fragmented,\u201d Goodall said. \u201cImproving confidence is being tempered by affordability constraints, the jobs outlook and cautious lending conditions, particularly in larger urban markets.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rates, policy reform shape the 2026 playbook<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Interest rate views are central to sentiment. The survey period spanned\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpamag.com\/nz\/news\/general\/economists-call-225-the-bottom-as-rbnz-turns-neutral\/558351\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">the Reserve Bank\u2019s late-November OCR cut to 2.25%<\/a>, and expectations shifted afterwards. Before the decision, 54% of respondents expected at least one rate cut in 2026; after, that fell to 43%, with more now seeing rates on hold.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe expectation of short-term rate relief has definitely softened following the rate cuts we had in 2025,\u201d Goodall said. \u201cLower mortgage rates have begun flowing through the market as fixed terms roll off and they\u2019ve also helped to support record levels of first-home buyer activity. We\u2019re also starting to see mortgaged investors gradually re-enter the market too, even as capital growth expectations remain tempered.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpamag.com\/nz\/news\/general\/nz-government-targets-housing-shortage-with-national-direction-reforms\/537416\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Planning and Resource Management Act reforms<\/a>\u00a0add a layer of longer-term optimism, with almost half of respondents expecting regional benefits over the next two to three years. But, as Goodall noted, \u201cthe effects are likely to be gradual rather than immediate,\u201d and \u201cin the short term, price outcomes will continue to be driven by sales volumes, listing levels and borrowing capacity.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpamag.com\/nz\/news\/general\/nz-election-set-for-november-7-as-asb-tips-ocr-hikes-in-late-2026\/563226\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">general election later in 2026<\/a>\u00a0will inject additional uncertainty, with borrowers and lenders watching for any policy changes that could affect credit availability or investor appetite.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u201cOn the whole New Zealand\u2019s housing market is showing tentative signs of improvement, but the same rate of&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":309831,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[79,27099,179,18,151583,19,17,151582],"class_list":{"0":"post-309830","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-cotality","10":"tag-economy","11":"tag-eire","12":"tag-housing-sentiment","13":"tag-ie","14":"tag-ireland","15":"tag-new-zealands-housing-market"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/115978697871574419","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/309830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=309830"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/309830\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/309831"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=309830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=309830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=309830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}