To find an answer, Peng and a team of 41 scientists came together to determine the global methane budget<\/a>\u2014a measure of the methane emitted and removed from the atmosphere\u2014from 2019 to 2023. With their diversity of expertise, the group was able to propose a primary culprit behind the 2020\u201321 methane surge: The atmosphere\u2019s self-cleaning chemistry was momentarily hampered<\/a> (Science 2026, DOI: 10.1126\/science.adx8262).<\/p>\n \u201cThey threw the kitchen sink at the problem,\u201d says Francesca Hopkins<\/a>, a climate change scientist at University of California, Riverside, who was not involved in the work.<\/p>\n The team primed three independent computational models with a wealth of surface measurements from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stations across the US and space-based observations from the GOSAT satellite. The models reveal that when fewer people operated combustion engines because of COVID, emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) dropped. That reduction inadvertently caused less methane to be scrubbed from the atmosphere.<\/p>\n NOx reacts with air to form hydroxyl radicals. These go on to destroy methane, turning it into carbon dioxide, a less potent greenhouse gas. So, less NOx inadvertently led to more methane persisting in the atmosphere.<\/p>\n At the same time, the models show that wetlands in tropical Africa and Southeastern Asia were emitting more methane due to three continuous La Ni\u00f1a years, Peng says. It was a perfect formula for an atmospheric methane spike.<\/p>\n
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