\u201cKalshi\u2019s markets are extremely efficient and serve as a source of truth on the likelihood of all events, including AI model progress,\u201d Jack Such, a spokesperson for the company, told PYMNTS.<\/p>\n
So who\u2019s winning based on the bets?<\/p>\n
\u201cGemini is the current market leader for \u2018Best AI\u2019 by the end of 2025,\u201d Such said.<\/p>\n
On Kalshi<\/a>, Gemini shows a 58% probability of winning, compared with 19% for ChatGPT, as of midmorning on Thursday (Aug. 28). The third spot goes to Grok, at 17%. Claude, which Menlo Ventures said was the enterprise favorite<\/a>, clocks in at 2% and tied with Meta\u2019s Llama.<\/p>\n The total trading volume reached $8.1 million.<\/p>\n Kalshi is just one of several platforms that are pivoting to AI trading.<\/p>\n Other players include Polymarket, an offshore crypto-based prediction market, Manifold Markets<\/a>, Metaculus<\/a> and other sites.<\/p>\n Which AI model is winning globally? The AI community abroad agrees with the Americans. Polymarket, which is only available to non-Americans, predicts<\/a> that Google will win by year\u2019s end, at 66% odds. OpenAI comes in at 16% probability while xAI is third with 14%.<\/p>\n See also:<\/strong> Crypto Firms Grapple with Bank-Like Risks, Without the Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n Betting on Anything in the World<\/strong><\/p>\n How Kalshi works: People bet yes or no on outcomes in the real world, such as whether the Fed will cut short-term interest rates by 25 basis points in September (76% probability it will) or who will win the Nobel Peace Prize (Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei, is at 20% probability and Donald Trump at 10%).<\/p>\n Bettors buy contracts tied to these outcomes at prices<\/a> between a penny and 99 cents, settling at $1. For example, if a bettor buys a contract for 40 cents and they guess the outcome correctly, they are paid $1. If they guessed wrong, they lose their 40 cents. Bettors can also sell the contract before there\u2019s an outcome if they see the contract price go up or down.<\/p>\n In a tie, the default would be a negative outcome.<\/p>\n For AI models, results will be determined<\/a> by the rankings on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard<\/a> at the end of the year, according to Kalshi.<\/p>\n Currently, the leaderboard shows Gemini 2.5 pro slightly ahead of<\/a> GPT-5 for first place, followed closely by Claude Opus.<\/p>\n One Kalshi user noticed<\/a> a tie earlier this month and wrote, \u201cit\u2019s a tight race on LMArena. I don\u2019t understand why the spread is so drastic. Huge earnings for people who bet on GPT with decent odds that it will flip.\u201d<\/p>\n Kalshi began allowing bettors to trade on AI models in 2023. \u201cWe were confident in consumer demand for these products because of the rapid growth of AI and the economic and political consequences of model progress,\u201d Such said.<\/p>\n Kalshi said<\/a> the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates it as a financial exchange for trading futures, swaps and options on commodities.<\/p>\n \u201cUnderstanding that Kalshi is regulated \u2026 helps reassure users that they are engaging with a platform that adheres to the highest standards of operation and accountability,\u201d the company says on its site.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s to hoping the bet will be good.<\/p>\n Read more:<\/strong><\/p>\n Cross-Border Payments Platform Wise Proposes Moving Stock Market Listing to US<\/a><\/p>\n Ripple Prepares to Bring Stablecoin to Global Exchanges<\/a><\/p>\n![\"AI](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AI-betting-graphic.png\")
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