{"id":34198,"date":"2025-08-31T06:14:07","date_gmt":"2025-08-31T06:14:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/34198\/"},"modified":"2025-08-31T06:14:07","modified_gmt":"2025-08-31T06:14:07","slug":"after-french-prime-ministers-political-hara-kiri-macron-faces-three-unpalatable-choices-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/34198\/","title":{"rendered":"After French prime minister\u2019s political hara-kiri, Macron faces three unpalatable choices \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

Within hours of his gamble, a back-me-or-sack-me ultimatum<\/a> for a parliamentary vote of confidence, French premier Fran\u00e7ois Bayrou knew it had not paid off. Journalists were already reporting that president Emmanuel Macron was looking around for a cabinet team to succeed him after the entire opposition from left to far-right predictably made clear they would be voting \u201cnon\u201d on September 8th.<\/p>\n

The French prime minister\u2019s gamble on a losing certainty \u2013 he alone apparently still believed he could win with his bold demand for a pre-endorsement of his budget \u2013 was, as one observer noted, nothing less than an act of political hara-kiri.<\/p>\n

Frustrated by the immovable deadlock in the National Assembly and what he saw as the opposition\u2019s refusal to take seriously the need to manage France\u2019s soaring deficit, Bayrou effectively threw in the towel. The parliamentary maths is simple: adding up the votes of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and allies (138), the left-wing parties (192) and the Libert\u00e9s, Ind\u00e9pendants, Outre-mer et Territoires group (LIOT; 23), Bayrou faces a majority of votes against him. Come September 8th, he will be gone.<\/p>\n

His confidence-vote gambit, just as ill-judged in terms of miscalculating the mood in parliament and on the streets, resembles the one taken by Emmanuel Macron when he dissolved the National Assembly just over a year ago. That left the assembly divided three ways with no possibility of securing a majority-supported government, and no way to take badly needed, unpalatable decisions. <\/p>\n

As Le Monde political columnist Fran\u00e7oise Fressoz puts it, \u201cBayrou has demonstrated that without a parliamentary majority, a prime minister now has just two options: inertia or sacrifice.\u201d His successor will face the same dilemma. Fressoz argues that the system is broken: \u201cThe political machine has now become jammed because there is no clear majority to serve as the focus for people\u2019s disillusionment and anger.\u201d<\/p>\n

[\u00a0Emmanuel Macron short of options as France faces political crisis largely of his makingOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

Both Bayrou and Macron have sought to circumvent the parliamentary deadlock by various means \u2013 enraging MPs with attempts to impose measures by presidential diktat (only to provoke votes of confidence), or suggesting, but not following through on, a variety of referendums to appeal over the heads of politicians to sceptical voters. How about changing the voting system to a more proportional one, a long-time Bayrou project? Or asking voters directly if they approve of the despised pension reforms or tax measures? They don\u2019t. <\/p>\n

Both men face the uncomfortable reality that the parliamentary maths accurately reflect \u2013 even understate \u2013 popular disenchantment with them. Bayrou has a record-low approval rating for any head of government in France\u2019s Fifth Republic. And his big claim \u2013 as his predecessor Michel Barnier\u2019s 91-day government fell \u2013 that his record was one of a politician who promoted reconciliation between parties and with a sceptical, alienated public rings hollow.<\/p>\n

Macron, unwilling to make the budget concession required by either the left or RN necessary for their support, faces three equally unpalatable choices: appointing another almost certainly short-lived centrist government, calling another general election, or, horror of horrors, resigning. He will almost certainly opt to give himself breathing space by going for the first, giving himself time to conjure up a political legacy and find a credible successor for the 2027 presidentials, when he has to stand down.<\/p>\n

But even \u201cinertia\u201d may no longer be an option as France\u2019s political crisis deepens, spreading as usual from parliament to the streets. The confidence vote is scheduled two days before most of the country is expected to grind to a halt, swept by strikes and protests organised by the catch-all \u201cBloquons tout\u201d (\u201cLet\u2019s Block Everything\u201d) movement \u2013 akin to the Gilets Jaunes movement that convulsed France just a few years ago.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0The Irish Times view on politics in France: stuck in a bindOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

Its target is the deeply unpopular Bayrou budget, whose broad lines will survive its author\u2019s departure. Measures that were particularly unpopular to the left \u2013 the elimination of two public holidays, a freeze on pensions, welfare benefits and tax brackets \u2013 are seen by Macron as essential to the \u20ac40 billion-plus cuts that he insists are needed. The RN has its own shopping list: large cuts to immigration funding, a reduction in France\u2019s contribution to the EU and the elimination of dozens of government agencies.<\/p>\n

Using the same rhetoric as Macron did before his 2024 snap elections, the prime minister sees September 8th as a moment of \u201cclarification,\u201d a shock to the system that will bring parties to their senses. \u201cEveryone will now be held accountable,\u201d Bayrou argues, convinced that \u201cthis clarification is the very condition for our country to regain its footing.\u201d Macron was the one who got the shock. Bayrou is certain to be disappointed \u2013 it is more likely to be a case of \u201cApr\u00e8s moi, le d\u00e9luge\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Within hours of his gamble, a back-me-or-sack-me ultimatum for a parliamentary vote of confidence, French premier Fran\u00e7ois Bayrou…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":34199,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[79,179,18,6586,2220,19,17],"class_list":{"0":"post-34198","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-eire","11":"tag-emmanuel-macron","12":"tag-france","13":"tag-ie","14":"tag-ireland"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34198","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34198"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34198\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34199"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34198"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34198"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34198"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}