{"id":388690,"date":"2026-03-16T23:51:17","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T23:51:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/388690\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T23:51:17","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T23:51:17","slug":"ray-dalio-thinks-the-world-looks-like-pre-1945-times-as-we-near-the-end-of-his-big-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/388690\/","title":{"rendered":"Ray Dalio thinks the world looks like \u2018pre-1945 times\u2019 as we near the end of his \u2018Big Cycle\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"yf-1p2hw41\">\n<li class=\"yf-1p2hw41\">\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\"><strong>In today\u2019s CEO Daily:<\/strong> The Bridgewater founder describes a more unstable world order in a piece for Fortune<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1p2hw41\">\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\"><strong>The big leadership story:<\/strong> Palantir CEO Alex Karp says, don\u2019t worry, the DoD isn\u2019t using AI for mass domestic surveillance<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1p2hw41\">\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\"><strong>The markets:<\/strong> Mildly positive across Asia as oil passes $100\/barrel<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"yf-1p2hw41\">\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\"><strong>Plus:<\/strong> All the news and watercooler chat from\u00a0Fortune.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\"><strong>Good morning. <\/strong>How will AI impact Ray Dalio\u2019s prognosis for the economy? The Bridgewater founder <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2026\/03\/14\/ray-dalio-big-cycle-debt-crisis-political-disorder-world-order\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:published a piece;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;published a piece&quot;}\" class=\"link \">published a piece<\/a> in Fortune this weekend, in which he argues that we are in stage 5 of what he calls the \u201cBig Cycle.\u201d (The global macro investor has studied the six stages of how major empires rise and fall, with stage 5 being the period prior to collapse.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">Dalio writes that \u201cit is indisputably clear that what is happening now is more analogous to pre-1945 times than the post-1945 times that we have gotten used to, which misleads most people\u2019s expectations and causes them to be shocked about what\u2019s happening.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">Among the hallmarks of stage 5:<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">\u201cLarge and rapidly rising government debts and geopolitical conflicts that lead to concerns about the value of and security of money, especially of the reserve currency, which drives a movement out of fiat currencies and into gold.\u201d (Gold prices are <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/article\/gold-value-change\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:up 70% over the past year.);elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;up 70% over the past year.)&quot;}\" class=\"link \">up 70% over the past year.)<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">\u201cLarge income, wealth, and values gaps within countries that lead to the rise of populism of the right and populism of the left and irreconcilable differences that can\u2019t be resolved with compromises and rule of law.\u201d (The <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2026\/02\/12\/e-shaped-economy-middle-lower-upper-class-k-shaped-economy-bank-america-data\/?utm_source=search&amp;utm_medium=suggested_search&amp;utm_campaign=search_link_clicks\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:income gap has increased;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;income gap has increased&quot;}\" class=\"link \">income gap has increased<\/a> and, well, look around.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">\u201cThe movement from a world order with a dominant power and relative peace to a world order that reflects a great powers conflict.\u201d (Iran<a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2026\/03\/05\/iran-war-oil-strait-of-hormuz-mercantilism\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:could be the final blow;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;could be the final blow&quot;}\" class=\"link \"> could be the final blow<\/a> to the WTO-based world order.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">Other forces could disrupt or accelerate the Big Cycle: AI is creating a drastic shift of wealth, with the <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2026\/03\/13\/ex-indeed-ceo-chris-hyams-ai-warning\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:potential to destroy jobs;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;potential to destroy jobs&quot;}\" class=\"link \">potential to destroy jobs<\/a> unlike anything we\u2019ve experienced before. Artificial general intelligence could materially change the structure of money and nature of growth while creating faster and more volatile cycles. And one other factor comes to mind, following a fascinating discussion at the Explorers Club on Friday with NYU glaciologist David Holland about the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.explorers.org\/calendar-of-events\/into-the-heart-of-the-doomsday-glacier\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:\u201cdoomsday\u201d Thwaites glacier in Antarctica;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;\u201cdoomsday\u201d Thwaites glacier in Antarctica&quot;}\" class=\"link \">\u201cdoomsday\u201d Thwaites glacier in Antarctica<\/a>: The <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2026\/03\/06\/climate-change-last-3-years-hottest-on-record-forecast-outlook-el-nino\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:accelerating pace of climate change;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;accelerating pace of climate change&quot;}\" class=\"link \">accelerating pace of climate change<\/a>, if not addressed, could make that coveted stage 1 seem even further away.<\/p>\n<p>Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/mailto:diane.brady@fortune.com\" data-ylk=\"slk:diane.brady@fortune.com;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;diane.brady@fortune.com&quot;}\" class=\"link \" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">diane.brady@fortune.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"yf-1fy9kyt\">This story was originally featured on <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2026\/03\/16\/bridgewater-ray-dalio-thinks-world-looks-like-pre-1945-big-cycle\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"slk:Fortune.com;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;context_link&quot;,&quot;yModuleName&quot;:&quot;content-canvas&quot;,&quot;yLinkText&quot;:&quot;Fortune.com&quot;}\" class=\"link \">Fortune.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In today\u2019s CEO Daily: The Bridgewater founder describes a more unstable world order in a piece for Fortune&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":388691,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[267],"tags":[58367,365,362,363,364,177505,366,177504,18,117,19,17,177503,141740],"class_list":{"0":"post-388690","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-arts-and-design","8":"tag-alex-karp","9":"tag-arts","10":"tag-arts-and-design","11":"tag-artsanddesign","12":"tag-artsdesign","13":"tag-bridgewater","14":"tag-design","15":"tag-domestic-surveillance","16":"tag-eire","17":"tag-entertainment","18":"tag-ie","19":"tag-ireland","20":"tag-unstable-world-order","21":"tag-world-order"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/116241543012664422","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/388690","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=388690"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/388690\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/388691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=388690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=388690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=388690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}