{"id":390192,"date":"2026-03-17T20:24:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:24:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/390192\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T20:24:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T20:24:09","slug":"can-project-hail-mary-deliver-amazon-needs-a-hit-after-string-of-flops","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/390192\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Project Hail Mary Deliver? Amazon Needs a Hit After String of Flops"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tIn \u201cProject Hail Mary<\/a>,\u201d Ryan Gosling plays a scientist tasked with saving the planet from extinction. Amazon MGM<\/a>, which backed the $200 million sci-fi epic, might not have the weight of the world in the balance, but the stakes are\u00a0high: \u201cProject Hail Mary\u201d needs to become a\u00a0crowd-pleasing hit to validate the studio\u2019s expensive investment in\u00a0movies. So far, the e-commerce giant has learned the hard way that getting people to theaters\u00a0isn\u2019t\u00a0as easy as selling them paper products.<\/p>\n

\n\tSo it\u2019s a relief that \u201cProject Hail Mary,\u201d adapted from \u201cThe Martian\u201d author Andy Weir\u2019s best-selling novel, is primed to be the studio\u2019s first original blockbuster when it debuts on March 20. It\u2019s\u00a0targeting a launch of $63 million to $65 million\u00a0in North America, which would mark\u00a0Amazon MGM\u2019s\u00a0biggest opening ever (2023\u2019s \u201cCreed III\u201d holds the record with $58\u00a0million). Box office watchers are\u00a0bullish\u00a0that reviews \u2014 the film boasts a 95% average on Rotten Tomatoes \u2014 and positive word-of-mouth could propel initial ticket sales even higher.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cProject Hail Mary\u201d is arriving at a\u00a0pivotal\u00a0time\u00a0for Amazon MGM, which has spent lavishly\u00a0in its quest to become a major player in the movie business.\u00a0Nearly four\u00a0years after acquiring MGM for\u00a0$8 billion<\/a>, Amazon\u00a0is\u00a0unveiling its first full theatrical slate, with 13\u00a0films on schedule\u00a0over the span of 12 months.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tThe studio\u2019s foray into theatrical has been uneven. Recent misfires have been aplenty: Luca Guadagnino\u2019s star-studded\u00a0\u201cAfter the Hunt\u201d earned a paltry $9 million against an $80 million budget;\u00a0the first lady documentary \u201cMelania\u201d\u00a0generated\u00a0$16 million, impressive for the genre, but\u00a0tragic against a $40 million budget;\u00a0and the R-rated caper \u201cCrime 101\u2033\u00a0grossed\u00a0$65 million against a $90 million budget.\u00a0Yet\u00a0there have been few\u00a0unmitigated wins:\u00a0\u201cCreed III\u201d collected $276 million against a $75 million budget, and Jason Statham\u2019s 2024 action thriller \u201cThe Beekeeper\u201d\u00a0amassed $162 million against a $40 million budget. (A \u201cBeekeeper\u201d sequel is set for 2027.)<\/p>\n

\n\tMost of Amazon\u2019s releases exist in a gray area \u2014 passable\u00a0if Hollywood\u00a0is willing to grade\u00a0on a curve,\u00a0but downright disastrous\u00a0to\u00a0anyone else.\u00a0For example, Ben Affleck and Matt Damon\u2019s Nike drama \u201cAir\u201d ($90 million worldwide), Affleck\u2019s action sequel \u201cThe Accountant 2\u201d ($103 million), Guadagnino\u2019s sexy tennis drama \u201cChallengers\u201d ($96 million) and Dwayne Johnson\u2019s holiday adventure \u201cRed One\u201d ($186 million) drew crowds\u2026 just nowhere near enough to recoup their budgets, which range from $90 million to $250 million.<\/p>\n

\n\tSince theater owners keep half of revenue, a $200 million tentpole in the vein of \u201cProject Hail Mary\u201d needs to earn at least $500 million to break even. Amazon MGM says it uses a different metric \u2014 earning back marketing and distribution costs \u2014 to justify its theatrical endeavors. In theory, the big screen provides a halo effect that boosts subscriptions and viewership on Prime Video. <\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cThe value of these movies is different for our business model,\u201d\u00a0the studio\u2019s distribution chief Kevin\u00a0Wilson told Variety in 2024<\/a>.\u00a0\u201cWe\u2019re\u00a0getting a massive marketing campaign\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0being paid for before the film gets to streaming.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tIndustry analysts and rival studio\u00a0executives, however,\u00a0wonder whether that\u2019s a sustainable long-term strategy.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cEvery studio operates by the same metrics: A slate of movies has to make money\u00a0\u2014\u00a0more income than expenses,\u201d says\u00a0analyst\u00a0David A. Gross\u00a0of\u00a0Franchise Entertainment Research. \u201cThere are no special metrics to justify a flop.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tWith\u00a0Amazon\u2019s\u00a0$2.2 trillion\u00a0market cap,\u00a0competitors often joke that\u00a0the behemoth\u00a0could count a\u00a0write-down in the hundreds of millions\u00a0of dollars\u00a0as\u00a0a rounding error. Yes, Amazon\u2019s deep pockets make it easier to absorb losses.\u00a0But no studio wants to be associated with a string of\u00a0bombs.\u00a0<\/strong>Sources say there\u2019s internal anxiety after \u201cCrime 101\u201d\u00a0didn\u2019t\u00a0break out\u00a0and \u201cMelania\u201d was a\u00a0costly\u00a0flop.\u00a0So\u00a0executives are putting\u00a0more\u00a0pressure on \u201cProject Hail Mary\u201d\u00a0to\u00a0change the\u00a0narrative\u00a0around Amazon\u2019s movie efforts.<\/p>\n

\n\tUnlike other streamers, Amazon MGM has endeared itself to cinema owners by prioritizing the big screen. Netflix doesn\u2019t adhere to traditional windows. Meanwhile Apple has essentially disappeared after pledging to commit $1 billion a year to theatrical. Following several big-budget bombs like Martin Scorsese\u2019s 2023 historical drama \u201cKillers of the Flower Moon\u201d and Matthew Vaughn\u2019s 2024 spy thriller \u201cArgylle,\u201d it had just one film, Brad Pitt\u2019s racing adventure \u201cF1,\u201d in 2025, with nothing on schedule for 2026.<\/p>\n

\n\tExhibitors don\u2019t want Amazon MGM to get discouraged by growing pains. Cinema operators have long complained about a decrease in the volume of new releases. So Amazon\u2019s efforts are especially helpful as revenues lag 20% behind pre-pandemic years.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cAmazon is building a studio where you can take risks.\u00a0That\u2019s\u00a0really important\u00a0to us in the business,\u201d says Gregory Quinn, managing partner of Puerto Rico-based Caribbean Cinemas.\u00a0\u201cThey\u2019re going to make movies that work and\u00a0don\u2019t\u00a0work. At some point, it\u2019s going to pay off.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tBox office watchers are optimistic that October\u2019s psychosexual thriller \u201cVerity,\u201d adapted from Colleen Hoover\u2019s hit novel, will become a breakout \u00e0 la \u201cThe Housemaid.\u201d Dakota Johnson and Anne Hathaway star in the film, which carries a\u00a0relatively lean\u00a0$40 million price tag. Amazon\u2019s 2026 slate also includes June\u2019s toy-based \u201cMasters of the Universe,\u201d September\u2019s heist adventure \u201cHow to Rob a Bank\u201d and November\u2019s \u201cI Play Rocky,\u201d a drama about\u00a0tumultuous making of the 1976 boxing classic \u201cRocky.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cFor their first year with a full slate, you can\u2019t expect them to knock it out of the park,\u201d Quinn says. \u201cBut it\u2019s a full slate.\u00a0It\u2019s\u00a0a diverse slate. We\u2019ll take that.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In \u201cProject Hail Mary,\u201d Ryan Gosling plays a scientist tasked with saving the planet from extinction. Amazon MGM,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":390193,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[263],"tags":[150864,18,117,19,17,327,105152],"class_list":{"0":"post-390192","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-movies","8":"tag-amazon-mgm","9":"tag-eire","10":"tag-entertainment","11":"tag-ie","12":"tag-ireland","13":"tag-movies","14":"tag-project-hail-mary"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/116246391331541612","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/390192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=390192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/390192\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/390193"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=390192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=390192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=390192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}