{"id":39535,"date":"2025-09-02T22:08:11","date_gmt":"2025-09-02T22:08:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/39535\/"},"modified":"2025-09-02T22:08:11","modified_gmt":"2025-09-02T22:08:11","slug":"why-is-frances-government-on-the-brink-of-collapse-again-debt-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/39535\/","title":{"rendered":"Why is France\u2019s government on the brink of collapse, again? | Debt News"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"font-weight:400\">French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou last week called for parliament to hold an earlier-than-expected vote of confidence in him. Next week\u2019s ballot could lead to the collapse of his centrist government and prompt a period of further instability in the European Union\u2019s second biggest economy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">The vote on Monday in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, will see <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2024\/12\/13\/who-is-francois-bayrou-frances-new-prime-minister\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Bayrou<\/a> not only try to secure approval for himself and his government but also for his unpopular budget. But opposition parties have said they will vote against him and cut short his government\u2019s time in office.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">President Emmanuel Macron, who has promised to stay on until 2027, may soon face the complex task of appointing a prime minister for the third time in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2024\/12\/4\/french-pm-michel-barniers-government-loses-confidence-vote\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">one year<\/a> after his hasty dissolution of parliament in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2024\/6\/9\/frances-macron-calls-for-snap-elections-after-far-right-surge-in-eu-vote\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">June 2024<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">Financial markets were rattled after Bayrou\u2019s announcement on August 26. The interest payments on 10-year bonds rose to 3.5 percent on Monday, higher than debt-riddled Greece\u2019s 3.36 percent.<\/p>\n<p>What are Bayrou\u2019s budget proposals?<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">At first blush, France\u2019s economy appears to be doing relatively well. The government\u2019s debt pile is lower, relative to the size of its economy, than in Italy. And the cost of financing the annual interest on its debt is well below that of the United Kingdom\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">But Paris is struggling to keep a lid on its spending. Last year, France\u2019s budget deficit reached 5.8 percent (168.6 billion euros, or $196bn) of its gross domestic product (GDP). The official EU target is no more than 3 percent. Investors worry that France\u2019s persistent deficits will cause ever higher debt ratios and undermine its credit score.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">For his part, Bayrou is trying to lower the government\u2019s borrowing to 4.6 percent of GDP in 2026 and to 2.8 percent by 2029. In turn, that would lower the overall debt-to-GDP ratio to 117.2 percent in 2029, compared with 125.3 percent if no changes are made.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">His plan includes 43.8 billion euros ($51bn) in savings for 2026, 80 percent of which would come from spending cuts, such as reductions in public sector hiring, suspending pension indexation to inflation and scrapping two public holidays.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">Greater taxes on high earners are among other proposals that have been considered.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">The prime minister\u2019s proposals come on top of Macron\u2019s unpopular 2023 move to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2023\/4\/14\/french-court-approves-macrons-plan-to-raise-retirement-age\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">raise France\u2019s retirement age<\/a> by two years to 64. At the time, the president argued that excessive pension payments were a drag on the country\u2019s finances.<\/p>\n<p>Before the confidence vote, the French leadership has again tried to shape the debate around the country\u2019s future.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe issue, the question, is not the fate of the prime minister or\u2026 even the fate of the government. The question is the fate of France,\u201d Bayrou said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">On August 26, Finance Minister Eric Lombard warned that unless France gets its debt under control, interventions from the International Monetary Fund, the global lender of last resort \u2013 typically for emerging market countries \u2013 \u201cis a risk that is in front of us\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>How have political parties responded to Bayrou\u2019s gamble?<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">Because Bayrou\u2019s centrist and allied conservative coalition does not hold an outright majority in France\u2019s parliament, the prime minister will have to rely on the support \u2013 or at least abstention \u2013 of adversaries on the left and the right to pass his budget.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">But opposition parties, which hold more than 320 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, have already said they would vote against Bayrou. If they stick to that, it would be impossible for the current government to survive.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-arc-image-770 wp-image-3921487\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/INTERACTIVE-Political-groups-in-the-National-Assembly0D-september-2-2025-1756824944.png\" alt=\"Political groups in the National Assembly - september 2, 2025-1756824944\" data-interactive=\"true\" fetchpriority=\"low\"\/>(Al Jazeera)<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">Hard-left lawmakers from Unbowed said they want to \u201cmake the government fall\u201d, and the Socialists have promised to reject an \u201cunfair budget\u201d. The national secretary of the Greens, Marine Tondelier, described Bayrou\u2019s confidence vote as \u201ca resignation de facto\u201d.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure said it would vote against the government. Bayrou had \u201cchosen to go\u201d, Faure said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">Elsewhere, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2024\/6\/29\/who-is-jordan-bardella-frances-far-right-star-eyeing-the-premiership\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Jordan Bardella<\/a>, head of the National Rally, said his far-right party would \u201cnever vote in favour of a government whose decisions are making the French suffer\u201d. Bayrou in effect has announced \u201cthe end of his government\u201d, Bardella said.<\/p>\n<p>How have financial markets responded?<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">Political instability has increased the cost of government debt (otherwise known as the yield) and lowered the value of key French stocks with shares in the banks BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale all down 8 to 10 percent last week.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">For Davide Oneglia, a European analyst at the political research firm TS Lombard, continued political wrangling has amplified the difference between French and German 10-year borrowing costs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"media-ui-Paragraph_text-SqIsdNjh0t0- paywall\" data-component=\"paragraph\">Since the start of this year, France\u2019s borrowing premium over Germany \u2013 a key measure of macroeconomic risk \u2013 has widened by almost 1 percentage point. France\u2019s 10-year yields are now among the highest in the EU, recently surpassing Greece\u2019s and Portugal\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">\u201cThe political situation is causing wider spreads [between France\u2019s borrowing costs and its European peers]. We\u2019re not at a full-blown debt crisis yet, but the fiscal situation is becoming more urgent,\u201d Oneglia told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">In December, the Moody\u2019s rating agency lowered France\u2019s credit score from \u201cAa3\u201d from \u201cAa2\u201d amid pressure on Paris\u2019s strained finances. Moody\u2019s move put it in line with those from rival agencies S&amp;P and Fitch, which have also downgraded their ratings for France since 2023.<\/p>\n<p>What could happen next?<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">Most commentators said Bayrou will likely lose next week\u2019s confidence vote, forcing Macron to replace him with yet another prime minister. That would return the president to an impasse over the budget, which he\u2019s failed to tackle since snap elections last year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">It also wouldn\u2019t change the arithmetic in parliament. And because Macron is unlikely to appoint a premier who advocates a looser fiscal policy, which could win the support of parliament, political gridlock looks set to follow.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">Some politicians, including Marine Le Pen of the National Rally, have urged Macron to call new legislative elections in the hope of reshuffling the political deck before France\u2019s presidential election in 2027. But the French president will be wary of that option.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">The latest opinion polls show no material change in voting intentions since last year\u2019s vote, which resulted in the current parliament. Meanwhile, the prospects of a National Rally victory in the next presidential election are stronger than ever: The party has been leading in polls for that vote consistently over the past two years. In May, two polls had the National Rally\u2019s likely candidate, Jordan Bardella, at 30 percent and 31 percent respectively, with the next candidate at 21 percent.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">In the event of a National Rally presidential win, Oneglia believes the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2022\/9\/25\/italys-right-wing-alliance-set-for-election-victory-exit-polls\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Italian elections in 2022<\/a> offer a useful blueprint. \u201cMeloni\u2019s right-wing populist party quickly became fiscally centrist when they came into power,\u201d he said, referring to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight:400\">\u201cIt wouldn\u2019t surprise me to see a similar outcome in France in 2027 [if the National Rally were to win]. Until then, I expect the political situation to assume a \u2018kicking into the long grass\u2019 mode,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou last week called for parliament to hold an earlier-than-expected vote of confidence in&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":39536,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[79,6046,179,18,11903,3427,10847,2220,3428,19,17,5,790],"class_list":{"0":"post-39535","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-debt","10":"tag-economy","11":"tag-eire","12":"tag-elections","13":"tag-explainer","14":"tag-financial-markets","15":"tag-france","16":"tag-government","17":"tag-ie","18":"tag-ireland","19":"tag-news","20":"tag-politics"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39535","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39535"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39535\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39536"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39535"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39535"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39535"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}