{"id":459300,"date":"2026-04-29T07:58:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T07:58:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/459300\/"},"modified":"2026-04-29T07:58:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T07:58:12","slug":"a-look-at-seagate-technology-stx-valuation-after-strong-ai-driven-earnings-and-hamr-storage-momentum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/459300\/","title":{"rendered":"A Look At Seagate Technology (STX) Valuation After Strong AI Driven Earnings And HAMR Storage Momentum"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Track your investments for FREE<\/a> with Simply Wall St, the portfolio command center trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide.<\/p>\n

What Seagate\u2019s latest earnings reveal about the AI storage story <\/p>\n

Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) just reported third quarter results that put a spotlight on how AI and data center demand are feeding into the business and, by extension, the stock.<\/p>\n

For the quarter ended April 3, 2026, Seagate reported sales of US$3,112 million compared with US$2,160 million a year earlier, and net income of US$748 million compared with US$340 million.<\/p>\n

Basic earnings per share from continuing operations came in at US$3.38 versus US$1.60 a year ago, while diluted EPS from continuing operations was US$3.27 versus US$1.57.<\/p>\n

Over the first nine months of the fiscal year, sales were US$8,566 million compared with US$6,653 million in the prior year period, with net income of US$1,890 million versus US$981 million.<\/p>\n

Basic EPS from continuing operations for the nine months was US$8.71 versus US$4.65 a year earlier, and diluted EPS from continuing operations was US$8.29 versus US$4.52.<\/p>\n

See our latest analysis for Seagate Technology Holdings.<\/a><\/p>\n

The latest earnings and new AI focused storage launches come after a 59.76% 1 month share price return and a 101.37% year to date share price return. Total shareholder return over the past year has risen to around 7x, and longer term multi year total shareholder returns have also been very large. This suggests momentum has been strong as investors reassess Seagate\u2019s growth potential and risk profile around AI infrastructure demand.<\/p>\n

If you are looking beyond Seagate in the AI infrastructure build out, it could be worth scanning other storage and compute enablers through the 38 AI infrastructure stocks<\/a><\/p>\n

With earnings, AI demand and the share price all moving sharply, the key question now is whether Seagate\u2019s valuation still leaves any mispricing on the table or if the market is already fully charging for future growth.<\/p>\n

Most Popular Narrative: 20% Overvalued <\/p>\n

Seagate\u2019s most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $483 per share, which sits below the last close of $579.03 and frames the current AI optimism against a detailed earnings and cash flow story.<\/p>\n

\n

Seagate is ramping up its HAMR-based Mozaic drives, which represent a technological breakthrough. The transition to these drives is expected to lead to sustained and profitable growth, impacting both revenue and net margins positively.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Read the complete narrative.<\/a><\/p>\n

Want to see what kind of revenue climb, margin reset, and earnings power this narrative is baking in, and how that ties back to the $483 fair value call?<\/p>\n

The narrative uses a discount rate of 8.14% and builds in robust growth and margin expansion assumptions to reach its fair value estimate of $483.07, which is roughly 20% below the current share price. That gap reflects a view that the market is already pricing in stronger earnings power than the narrative itself, even as the company\u2019s Mozaic platform and AI driven storage demand feature prominently in the upside case.<\/p>\n

Result: Fair Value of $483.07 (OVERVALUED)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.<\/a><\/p>\n

However, this AI storage story still carries real risk, from trade policy shifts that could unsettle cloud buying plans to competing SSD and QLC NAND technology pressuring Seagate\u2019s pricing power.<\/p>\n

Find out about the key risks to this Seagate Technology Holdings narrative.<\/a><\/p>\n

Another angle on what the current price implies <\/p>\n

While the narrative driven fair value of $483.07 flags Seagate as overvalued, our DCF model points to a fair value of $618.90, with the current $579.03 price trading about 6.4% below that estimate. So which perspective do you think better reflects the AI storage cycle risk you are willing to take?<\/p>\n

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.<\/a><\/p>\n

\"STX<\/a> STX Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026 <\/p>\n

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Seagate Technology Holdings for example<\/a>). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist<\/a> or portfolio<\/a> and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks<\/a>. If you save a screener<\/a> we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.<\/p>\n

Next Steps <\/p>\n

With sentiment clearly split between enthusiasm and caution, it makes sense to move fast and weigh the trade offs yourself using the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Looking for more investment ideas? <\/p>\n

If Seagate has sharpened your focus on where growth and risk meet, do not stop here, broaden your watchlist with a few more targeted ideas.<\/p>\n

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.<\/strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.<\/p>\n

Companies discussed in this article include STX<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch<\/a> with us directly.<\/strong> Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Track your investments for FREE with Simply Wall St, the portfolio command center trusted by over 7 million…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":452356,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[261],"tags":[291,9499,289,290,84968,18,25947,19,17,124566,82],"class_list":["post-459300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-artificial-intelligence","tag-ai","tag-ai-infrastructure","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-artificialintelligence","tag-earnings-per-share","tag-eire","tag-fair-value","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-seagate-technology","tag-technology"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/116486937333252295","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/459300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=459300"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/459300\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/452356"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=459300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=459300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=459300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}