{"id":462562,"date":"2026-05-01T03:34:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T03:34:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/462562\/"},"modified":"2026-05-01T03:34:22","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T03:34:22","slug":"ben-youngs-investec-champions-cup-semi-final-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/462562\/","title":{"rendered":"Ben Youngs’ Investec Champions Cup: Semi-final predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

In his latest Investec Champions Cup column for Planet Rugby, For The Love Of Rugby co-host Ben Youngs predicts the winners of this weekend\u2019s semi-finals, highlights why Toulon is a favourite destination for ex-England players and explains what makes Louis Bielle-Biarrey such a special player.<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is criticism that the Champions Cup<\/a> semi-final venues \u2013 Aviva Stadium in Dublin and Stade Atlantique in Bordeaux \u2013 are not neutral, as Leinster Rugby and Union Bordeaux B\u00e8gles regularly use these grounds. But equally, you want these semi-finals to be accessible for people to get there and show their support.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s one of those, where do you go? I believe that if Leinster and Bordeaux are the best two teams throughout the tournament, then they should have an advantage, even if they are still in the same city. We want stadiums where people are attending in big numbers, so I don\u2019t have an issue with the venues.<\/p>\n

Leinster Rugby v RC Toulon (Saturday, 3pm local time)<\/p>\n

There are rumours that Tadhg Furlong isn\u2019t going to be fit<\/a>, and Andrew Porter hasn\u2019t played since the Edinburgh match in the round of 16. The last thing you want is someone like Leinster<\/a> coming into your half with repeated entries because they will eventually break down the door.<\/p>\n

But if Furlong and Porter are absent, Toulon\u2019s way into the semi-final will obviously be around the set-piece, to squeeze Leinster there in terms of penalties to get field position and then launch off the back of that.<\/p>\n

The way the game is at the moment, it\u2019s high ball in play, it\u2019s movement, it\u2019s attacking, but the fundamentals of a scrum has never been more important while complementing these high scoring games. Toulon can create a game where the pressure mounts on Leinster.<\/p>\n

They have plenty of top players, like Nacho Brex. You saw the try he scored at Glasgow Warriors in the quarter-finals<\/a>; he is a classy operator in their centre. Ma\u2019a Nonu could potentially also be out there after serving his ban. The Toulon midfield against what could be Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose, or Rieko Ioane<\/a>, that\u2019s a pretty exciting match-up.<\/p>\n

When you look at Leinster\u2019s Jamison Gibson-Park, who is an absolute quality player, he could be against Ben White or Baptiste Serin. Serin is an unbelievable player, an outstanding French half-back, and White had a great Six Nations, so the battle of these half-backs is another head-to-head to watch.<\/p>\n

Tadhg Furlong on \u2018marmite\u2019 Henry Pollock\u2019, a fourth Lions tour and why Joe Schmidt shouldn\u2019t get a \u2018tough rap\u2019<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Then in the pack, Charles Ollivon versus Josh van der Flier. Ollivon was amazing for France, and he came up with a big play against the Stormers as well in the round of 16, where he held it up over the line. There is every chance he will be playing at seven against Van der Flier, so that battle will be very good.<\/p>\n

The big thing for Leinster is the way Jacques Nienaber sets them up<\/a>. They have become a team that wants to play a bit more of a defensive pressured game where, if you went back under Stuart Lancaster, it was a multi-phase layered attack that beat you by almost out-attacking you, out-phasing you. That is very different from what you see now.<\/p>\n

Leinster still have that capability but it\u2019s more forcing errors out of you, winning the ball high up the field with the press defence, squeezing you, jackal penalties, things like that. There has been a real shift in terms of what they did before and what they are doing now.<\/p>\n

For some time now, Leinster have gone into the Champions Cup as favourites or at least within the conversation of likely winners, but it feels like this season it is the first time that maybe they are not as spoken about.<\/p>\n

It feels very much like Bordeaux are the team being talked about, being the team to go back-to-back. It kind of works in Leinster\u2019s favour. They haven\u2019t got the weight of the world on them which they may have had in previous years, which can free them up.<\/p>\n

We also haven\u2019t seen the best version of Leinster yet. They haven\u2019t brought the all-court game for one of these European matches and at home in a semi-final, there is enough quality in their team. I don\u2019t see them falling into the same sort of trap as they did against Northampton last year. PREDICTION: Leinster by six points.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rassie Erasmus weighs in after \u2018honest and fearless\u2019 Eddie Jones launched broadside against Ireland and World Rugby<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Toulon\u2019s Anglo-Saxon influence<\/p>\n

There is a bit of an Anglo-Saxon spine to Toulon<\/a>. Location-wise, I can see why so many players are attracted to go and play there, but Toulon are also a big club. They won the Champions Cup three times in a row at one point, and they are nearly always competitive in the Top 14.<\/p>\n

But why has it suited Kyle Sinckler, Dave Ribbans, Lewis Ludlam, Ben White (I know he is Scottish, but he grew up in England) and Zach Mercer to play in France?<\/p>\n

PREM Rugby is very much a grind. Within the English system, you just play and play and play and therefore a lot of guys who go to France hold their own because they are used to that grind of playing week in week out, which is essentially what the Top 14 is.<\/p>\n

If you look at someone like Sinckler, I know for a fact he is loving life out there and is going great guns, so players do go out there and thrive.<\/p>\n

Look at Jack Willis \u2013 I know he is not at Toulon, but if you look at what he is now, the Jack Willis that is playing for Toulouse is a better player for it.<\/p>\n

Jack Willis on \u2018making peace\u2019 with England career, that Ireland rumour and the Toulouse player who is \u2018the scariest but nicest bloke at the same time\u2019<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

So a lot of players do go out there and they naturally improve because of the pressure of the league, because of the standard of the league and because of the individuals they are rubbing shoulders with.<\/p>\n

Toulon also now have Junior Kpoku, the World Rugby Junior Championship title winner with the England U20s. He is building his reputation and I\u2019m sure he is a prospect England are keeping an eye on, seeing how he is progressing and getting on.<\/p>\n

But look, the rules are pretty clear within England: If you play abroad, you can\u2019t come in the Test mix. I\u2019m sure if he ever gets an appetite of \u2018I want to give it a crack internationally\u2019, he will have to head back this way to the PREM<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Want more from Planet Rugby? Add us as\u00a0a preferred source on Google to your favourites list<\/a>\u00a0for world-class coverage you can trust.<\/p>\n

Union Bordeaux B\u00e8gles v Bath Rugby (Sunday, 4pm local time)<\/p>\n

With the backline that Bordeaux have and their power in the forwards, it is going to be very difficult for Bath to stop. The key for Johann van Graan\u2019s side, facing Louis Bielle-Biarrey, Damian Penaud and other threats like that, is to minimise their turnovers.<\/p>\n

Bordeaux are just lethal with that type of possession, so Bath need to be set up by Van Graan with that South African mentality of really good set-piece and being really pragmatic when getting out of their half.<\/p>\n

What Bath then try to do once they are in your 22 is a couple of launches; they almost pick and go and try and batter down the door, a bit like Exeter Chiefs a few years ago. The issue here is Bordeaux\u2019s power within its pack.<\/p>\n

They are physical guys, big guys and they can mix that, so Bath are going to have a bit more subtlety as to when they strike off lineouts and everything like that. They have got to strike faster against Bordeaux because the longer you hold onto the ball, the harder it is to grind down their big physical guys, and then there is the jackal threat.<\/p>\n

You look at the Toulouse game, they spent the first 20 minutes in Bordeaux\u2019s half, but they didn\u2019t get any points. If Bath are going to try and camp down Bordeaux, they have got to come away with something.<\/p>\n

But coming out of their half, Ben Spencer and Finn Russell are going to have to control it so well because you just can\u2019t give up anything for free against Bordeaux. Any turnover, anywhere you have over-phased and you drop it, they pick it up, kick it down field and Bielle-Biarrey\u2019s gets on the end of it.<\/p>\n

Loose Pass: A warning over controversial British and Irish Lions proposal while 20-minute red card set for another global \u2018power struggle\u2019<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

For all that Russell is a box of tricks, what a lot of people overlook with him is the fact that he is also very, very pragmatic and smart the way that he manages that 22-metre to halfway and that is going to be a big emphasis for him in terms of managing that because you want to keep Bordeaux at arm\u2019s length.<\/p>\n

It seems bizarre that Bath last played in a semi-final 20 years ago. You look at the history of it, their amateur era and how they were when the game went professional, they are a big, big club. Winning the PREM last year, winning the Challenge Cup last year, they are ambitious. They have got ambitious owners, and it\u2019s good to see them back to where they should be as a club of that stature.<\/p>\n

This game will highlight where they are really at because you are going against the best team away from home. If you look at the evolution of where they were when Van Graan came in and where they are now, it\u2019s super impressive.<\/p>\n

Bath are a hugely well-supported club, the fan base is awesome, it\u2019s a proper rugby city and to see them in a semi-final is great. You now want to see them consistently in the mix. They have got a squad of players with real depth, and with James Dyson now coming in and taking a 50 per cent ownership stake, it looks like it is going to be a regular occurrence for them to go far into the competition.<\/p>\n

They won\u2019t win on this occasion, though. Bordeaux, with the players they have and being at home, are looking to be that great team. You can win the Champions Cup once, but to win it twice is a whole new level of European pedigree, so I feel Bordeaux will be too strong. PREDICTION: Bordeaux by about 16 at the end.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Finn Russell likened to two Springboks legends ahead of Champions Cup showdown as Bath great hails \u2018rare ability\u2019<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The genius of LBB<\/p>\n

Bielle-Biarrey is arguably the best winger in the world. Having pace is one thing but with the skill set around it, he knows how to use it best. His ability to do grubber kicks, his ability to get on the end of it, his subtleties for the weight of the kick, there is so much to his game.<\/p>\n

Defensively, he is also so solid in the air. His record speaks for itself, but he has so many strings to his bow. Being quick is one thing, but it\u2019s how you best utilise that? He is a master of knowing his strengths. The little attacking kicks and the way he gets on the end of it, he is an absolute class operator.<\/p>\n

Out of the Ordinary<\/p>\n

It will come from Jalibert. He is going to come up with something memorable. You saw in that Toulouse game, he came up with a couple of awesome bits and I reckon we will see it again.<\/p>\n

Challenge Cup semi-finals<\/p>\n

One is a bit more mouth-watering than the other. Ulster Rugby versus Exeter Chiefs on Saturday in Belfast is going to be really good. The Irish side sent a mixed team down to Munster last weekend<\/a> in the United Rugby Championship, so they are clearly targeting winning this one and they will have enough.<\/p>\n

Exeter have lost the last two PREM games. They have had a great season so far, but I feel they are just running out of steam a little bit and Ulster will be ready and waiting. They have rested their team. All their players will be raring to go, so Ulster will have enough.<\/p>\n

You wouldn\u2019t have predicted a Montpellier H\u00e9rault Rugby v Dragons RFC semi-final. To see a Welsh team make the final in Bilbao on May 22 would be great. Given the problems, given everything that is going on in Welsh rugby, it would be fantastic to see them do it on Sunday in France.<\/p>\n