{"id":467782,"date":"2026-05-04T11:05:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T11:05:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/467782\/"},"modified":"2026-05-04T11:05:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T11:05:15","slug":"125-oil-could-tip-global-economy-into-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/467782\/","title":{"rendered":"$125 Oil Could Tip Global Economy Into Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"

Elevated oil prices for a sustained period of time would tip the global economy into a recession, Moody\u2019s Analytics\u2019 head of international economics, Gaurav Ganguly, told<\/a> CNBC, pegging the game-changing price at $125 per barrel of Brent crude.<\/p>\n

If prices go that high and stay that high long enough, the world will enter a recession, but it will be a shallow one, Ganguly noted, adding that for now, Moody\u2019s was reasonably optimistic, assuming the war in the Middle East would come to a swift end soon.<\/p>\n

Most analysts appear to share the same assumption, although some have started to become cautiously pessimistic, allowing for a prolonged disruption of normal tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, oil prices retreated from last week\u2019s highs after the latest plan of U.S. President Donald Trump to unblock tanker traffic in Hormuz. The plan<\/a> involves guiding tankers via the strait, although the guiding, it appears, will not involve the U.S. Navy, which is currently blockading traffic from and to Iranian ports.<\/p>\n

In the same post that contained the announcement of what the U.S. president dubbed \u201cProject Freedom\u201d, Trump also signaled peace discussions with Iran were progressing in a \u201cvery positive\u201d way.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven if this allows vessels to leave the Persian Gulf, we\u2019re likely to see little inbound traffic. This would only amount to temporary relief, as floating storage leaves the Persian Gulf,\u201d ING commodity analysts said<\/a> in a note following the announcement of Trump\u2019s plan.<\/p>\n

The decline in oil prices was indeed modest, as traders appear to take a more cautious stance with regard to their oil decisions, failing to be particularly impressed with OPEC\u2019s latest announcement that featured an agreement to ramp up production further next month. At 188,000 barrels daily, the output increase is a fraction of the amount of oil production lost amid the wr between the United States, Israel, and Iran since the start of March.<\/p>\n

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com<\/p>\n

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Elevated oil prices for a sustained period of time would tip the global economy into a recession, Moody\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":467783,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[174],"tags":[13147,79,356,179,18,182979,19,18929,17,169227,205400,13583,13149,168834,205401],"class_list":["post-467782","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-brent-crude","tag-business","tag-donald-trump","tag-economy","tag-eire","tag-global-recession","tag-ie","tag-iran","tag-ireland","tag-middle-east-war","tag-moodys-analytics","tag-oil-prices","tag-opec","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-tanker-traffic"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/116515984403020823","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/467782","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=467782"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/467782\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/467783"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=467782"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=467782"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=467782"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}