{"id":471030,"date":"2026-05-06T09:42:12","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T09:42:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/471030\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T09:42:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T09:42:12","slug":"westminster-braces-for-awkward-squad-of-celtic-nationalists-seeking-to-break-up-uk-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/471030\/","title":{"rendered":"Westminster braces for awkward squad of Celtic nationalists seeking to break up UK \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

It is widely assumed that the future of UK<\/a> prime minister Keir Starmer<\/a> will be a talking point straight after Thursday\u2019s elections in Britain<\/a>. By the weekend, another hot topic may be the future of the union.<\/p>\n

Politicos in Scotland <\/a>and Wales<\/a> have long since been highlighting that after this week\u2019s parliamentary votes in Wales and Scotland, it is highly likely that all three devolved nations (including Northern Ireland<\/a>) will be run by nationalist-led administrations whose parties were founded with the aim of breaking away from the UK.<\/p>\n

Only recently has this realisation seemed to dawn in Westminster. British politics, hardly a bastion of calm over the past decade, may be about to get even more fractious.<\/p>\n

The Scottish National Party<\/a> (SNP) is on course to win its fifth Holyrood election in a row and may even come close to an overall majority \u2013 no mean feat in an electoral system that was specifically designed to prevent such an outcome for any party.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the nationalist outfit of Plaid Cymru is likely, though not certain, to emerge as the biggest party in the devolved Welsh Senedd, ending Labour\u2019s<\/a> dominance of Welsh politics. <\/p>\n

What seems nailed on, however, is that Plaid will lead the next Welsh government, as it seems much more likely to be able to form a governing coalition than Nigel Farage\u2019s<\/a> Reform UK<\/a>, with which it is tussling to be the biggest party.<\/p>\n

Barring a big shock, Plaid\u2019s Rhun ap Iorwerth will soon join the SNP\u2019s John Swinney and Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s<\/a> Michelle O\u2019Neill<\/a> as first ministers of the UK\u2019s devolved nations, a Celtic proper awkward squad to throb the temples of the unionists in the Westminster establishment.<\/p>\n

Much attention in recent weeks has focused on Swinney\u2019s apparent gambit to \u201cchange the dynamics of the UK\u201d by joining political forces with his nationalist colleagues in the North and Wales to challenge Westminster\u2019s hegemony.<\/p>\n

\"ScottishScottish first minister John Swinney campaigns with Eilidh Munro, SNP candidate for Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch, in Fort William, Scotland. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell\/Getty Images <\/p>\n

Swinney, who has deftly guided the SNP from turmoil in 2024 to an unassailable position in just two years, has said that he would \u201cenjoy co-operation\u201d with the other members of this Celtic triumvirate. I bet he would.<\/p>\n

The massed ranks of the SNP are filled with devotees to the independence cause, but I have met few who believe in it more than Swinney. Don\u2019t be swayed by his understated demeanour. In person, the first minister intensely radiates a desire for an independent Scotland.<\/p>\n

Plaid\u2019s ap Iorwerth, meanwhile, is deliberately far more circumspect about independence from the UK than his Celtic cousin in Holyrood. Recent polls, including one last week by JL Partners for Blakeney consultants, found that a majority of Welsh voters are indifferent or even opposed to devolution, never mind independence.<\/p>\n

Cost-of-living worries and public services are the big issues in Wales, not constitutional change.<\/p>\n

Ap Iorwerth has grasped this fact and insists independence is not a priority for his party in the next Senedd term. He even went as far as to tell The Irish Times earlier in the spring that he had never really been one to talk about \u201cseparatism\u201d from the UK.<\/p>\n

Yet he also has to be mindful of the constitution of his party, updated in 2023. It is a concise, very readable document. It is very clear in naming Plaid\u2019s number one aim: \u201cTo secure independence for Wales in Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"LeaderLeader of Plaid Cymru Rhun ap Iorwerth. Photograph: Matthew Horwood\/Getty Images <\/p>\n

Even the party\u2019s manifesto for the 2026, where independence is not really meant to be on the agenda, is filled with nudge-wink references to Plaid\u2019s ultimate, long-term dream. It talks of a \u201crenewed belief in what Wales can be,\u201d of \u201cnation building\u201d and of being heard in Westminster, \u201cas we look towards a future beyond it\u201d.<\/p>\n

Along with Sinn F\u00e9in, the nationalists of the UK\u2019s Celtic nations will try to steer debate towards future constitutional change, even if there is little else they can do but talk about it, given the expected intransigence to come from the UK government.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0\u2018Name one thing invented by the Irish that improved the world? Zero\u2019: Local elections heat up in LondonOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

Things will get interesting, however, if the Celtic nationalists ever come up against a hard-core English nationalist administration, for that is what will transpire if Reform wins power in Westminster \u2013 and current polling suggest that is more likely than not by 2029.<\/p>\n

Thursday will also prove that Reform is on course to become a dominant power in English local government.<\/p>\n

Farage often professes himself to be a unionist but, when interrogated, his views on the UK\u2019s constitutional future are more nuanced than they might seem at first. For example, he once told The Irish Times over a claret-soaked lunch that he felt a united Ireland was \u201cinevitable\u201d. Later, he tried to pretend that he was misquoted, but the tape recording doesn\u2019t lie.<\/p>\n

\"ReformReform UK party leader Nigel Farage appears nonplussed about the idea of Scottish independence. Photograph: Carlos Jasso\/AFP\/Getty Images <\/p>\n

Up in Scotland, Reform\u2019s relaxed attitude towards an independent Scotland is personified in its leader there, Malcolm Offord. He says only that an independence referendum should be delayed for several years to focus on fixing public services, while also acknowledging that some of his Scottish colleagues have even favoured it.<\/p>\n

Farage, meanwhile, often appears nonplussed about the idea of Scottish independence.<\/p>\n

[\u00a0Kemi Badenoch apologises for Bloody Sunday clips in social media videoOpens in new window<\/a>\u00a0]<\/p>\n

The other burgeoning force in UK politics, the Green Party, has already more or less endorsed Scottish independence, and therefore, the effective break-up of the UK. It is official policy for its Scottish sister party, which is just as committed to independence as the SNP.<\/p>\n

Whoever wins Britain\u2019s various votes on Thursday, UK unionists may be the losers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It is widely assumed that the future of UK prime minister Keir Starmer will be a talking point…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10545,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[9,10,13,14,18577,6,5446,11,12,15,16,34866,5,20567,954,20566,23550,108408,47,7,8,17331,65,66,67],"class_list":{"0":"post-471030","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world","8":"tag-breaking-news","9":"tag-breakingnews","10":"tag-featured-news","11":"tag-featurednews","12":"tag-green-party","13":"tag-headlines","14":"tag-keir-starmer","15":"tag-latest-news","16":"tag-latestnews","17":"tag-main-news","18":"tag-mainnews","19":"tag-michelle-o-neill","20":"tag-news","21":"tag-nigel-farage","22":"tag-northern-ireland","23":"tag-reform-uk","24":"tag-scotland","25":"tag-scottish-national-party","26":"tag-sinn-fein","27":"tag-top-stories","28":"tag-topstories","29":"tag-wales","30":"tag-world","31":"tag-world-news","32":"tag-worldnews"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ie\/116526982988632231","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/471030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=471030"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/471030\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10545"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=471030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=471030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=471030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}